Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
FXUS65 KMSO 050947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
347 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

Light showers are currently streaming up through north central
Idaho and western Montana this morning associated with the
temperature gradient/frontal passage that is pushing eastward
through the region. This front will keep winds breezy today, and
max temperatures will be cooler today than they were yesterday.
Winds have already been a bit breezy across the region keeping
overnight conditions particularly dry and mild for valley

This afternoon, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop in the more unstable air associated with the frontal
passage. The best chance for this precipitation will be in Lemhi
County, Idaho, and through southwest Montana. Stronger storms
that develop could produce locally heavy rainfall, lightning, and
erratic gusty winds which could be disruptive to travelers and
outdoor recreationalists. Expect breezy winds to continue with the
front elsewhere through today.

A drier period could be expected tonight through mid-Wednesday as
majority of the moisture projects east of our area. The large
upper-level low pressure system is forecast to drop south which
will again spread more showers and potentially more thunderstorms
over the region late Wednesday through the end of the week. There
is a bit uncertainty as to how much impact this low will have on
the region, however, but the best chance for precipitation looks
to be more limited to north central Idaho, Lemhi County, and
southwestern Montana at this time. Some cooler air will remain
over the region in the wake of the low, but temperatures are
expected to remain near normal. By the weekend, there is potential
for a drier ridge pattern to influence the region which could
limit precipitation activity and bring a warmer temperature trend.


.AVIATION...Current radar loops show showers moving through north
central Idaho and western Montana this morning. Web cameras show
that rain is reaching the ground out of stronger showers though
many of these showers are only producing virga due to dry surface
conditions. A pressure gradient through the region has also
resulted in northwesterly surface winds already this morning.
These winds will become widespread by the afternoon. High
resolution model guidance agree that showers and thunderstorms
will develop through Lemhi County, Idaho, and southwest Montana
this afternoon. KSMN has a chance for these thunderstorms but the
best chance will be at KBTM. The thunderstorms and their resultant
impacts will move off to the east by around 06/0300z.



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.