Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 211046
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
646 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGHER
PRESSURE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRES OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST AS WEAK
HIGH PRES APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

EARLIER THIS MORNING...BKN SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANIED BY FQT LTG
AND BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS MIXED THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CAUSING THE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG TO DISSIPATE. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG STILL PERSIST AND ISOLATED
PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS YESTERDAY RANGED FROM .86 AT BDR TO 1.37 AT CP IN
NYC. ADDITIONAL OVERNIGHT RAINFALL RANGED FROM LESS THAN .1 TO .69
AT CHESTER IN CT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES AFT 12Z THEN
BECOME W AT 15-20 KT THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL CLEAR QUICKLY AND TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH
THE 60S.

FOR TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL CLOUDS ADVANCE SE ACROSS THE AREA AFT
MIDNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH FROM
CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE AND WITH STRONG LIFT BY THE AFTERNOON
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE
AND LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

CYCLONIC FLOW REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS. HEIGHT DO
RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SO HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY...HOWEVER...WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS.

LEANED MORE TOWARD THE NAM/MET GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS THURSDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS BLOCKED AND
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE UPPER TROUGH...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY THE
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY MID AFTERNOON
FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE TROUGH DOES WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE WEST...BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS
AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH
LIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH SOUTHERLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TERMINALS...BUT LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR/LIFR CONDS UNTIL SFC TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 10-13Z...AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.

COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
MORNING...AND WEST TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT
GUSTS.

WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK TO THE SW AND
DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. WINDS TO THE LEFT OF 310 MAG THIS AFTERNOON. OCNL
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FROM 18-22Z.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 28 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 26 KT FROM 18-22Z.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMDS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF WIND SHIFT/INCREASES
THIS MORNING. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TONIGHT...VFR.
.WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT IN -SHRA. S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH 20-30 KT GUSTS DURING THE
DAY...BECOMING W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT NIGHT.
.THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE MVFR IN ANY
-SHRA. W-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE MAY STILL BE
SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS INTO FRIDAY...AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LIKELY
REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION WIND
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS...MAY BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

TRANQUIL CONDITION ARE EXPECTED ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UP TO 1/4 INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE THRU EARLY MORNING.

UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A CDFNT TRACKS THRU THE HSA.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GC/MET
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC/MET
HYDROLOGY...GC/MET



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