Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 062102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
502 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ADJUSTED POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA FOR THIS EVENING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOWS...

WIDESPREAD CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED AS WE REACH OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES ARE APPROACHING
1000J/KG NORTH AND EAST OF PIT THIS AFTERNOON, COINCIDENT WITH
WHERE A STALLED BOUNDARY IS PLACED. WHILE SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK...THIS BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY/UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR EAST SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALREADY OCCURRING
JUST EAST OF OUR CWA AS OF THIS HOUR...AS SEEN ON RADAR. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED...SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO SUPPORT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS LIMITED. A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BUT ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED WHERE A MARGINAL RISK HAS
BEEN ADDED BY SPC JUST TO OUR EAST. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO
POPS BASED ON THE MESOANALYSIS AND HI RES MODEL DATA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
A LESSER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH
PLENTY OF MIXING TODAY...DO NOT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STORY WILL REMAIN MUCH THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH
THE AIRMASS GENERALLY REMAINING CONTINENTAL...MEANING LITTLE
INFLUENCE FROM THE GULF...MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...DESPITE THE
MODELS SUGGESTING QPF. THUS...ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST AS A
STRONG LIFTING MECHANISM WILL BE ABSENT. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON A
PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO EASTERN
OHIO...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW WILL NOT GET TO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL PERSIST...WITH MID TO UPPER 80`S
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH A GENERAL
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT THEN APPROACH MONDAY WITH FRONT CROSSING REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS
FORECAST QUITE CLOSE TO WPC EXTENDED PROGS WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN PORTS CLOSER TO
STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER...OTHERWISE GENERAL VFR
WITH A VCTS STILL IN THE LATROBE TERMINAL WHERE A LOW CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION TO POP OVER THE RIDGES. TONIGHT LIGHT WINDS AND
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT MOST PORTS. FOG SHOULD BUN OFF AROUND 13Z THURSDAY. GENERAL VFR
REMAINDER OF THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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