Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 020909
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
309 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL DROP
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO TODAY...KEEPING SHOWERS GOING WITH THE BULK
OF IT OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE
AGAIN...SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A MIX IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS. WITH THE AIR BEING SO DRY THOUGH...IT MAY STILL BE MOSTLY
SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 40. WITH HEAVIER
SHOWERS...GRAUPEL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
BORDERLINE TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DON`T BE SHOCKED IF A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS HEARD. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...MOST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT BUT QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW OR
GRAUPEL MAY INDEED PRODUCE TRAVEL PROBLEMS IT WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH LOWEST VALLEYS ONLY FLIRTING WITH 50.

HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS BRIEFLY FRIDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO EAST ON
SATURDAY AND WE RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. WE WILL
BE BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THEN WITH WIDESPREAD 50S
AND 60S FOR THE VALLEYS. SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AS WELL...WHICH
MAY HELP PUSH HIGHS UP A BIT MORE IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS. SHOWERS WILL
RETURN SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH A VERY
SLOW PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TO ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. KEYES

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE BUILDING
FOR WET EVENT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GFS AND EC IN RELATIVE
AGREEMENT. UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE PACNW STATES WITH
MOIST DIFLUENT FLOW OVER EAST IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SFC LOW OVER WYOMING NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WINDS AND HAVE LOWERED WINDS SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
TRENDS. MODELS DIVERGE HEADED INTO MONDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS AND A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER SHORTWAVE EJECTING
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS AMPLIFIED. EC SAGS BASE
OF UPPER TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH LEADING TO STRONGER DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
OVER IDAHO MONDAY. BOTH MODELS EJECT THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT WITH DETAIL
DIFFERENCES OVER THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. BOTH
MODELS AGREE ON RIDGE FOR THURSDAY AS NEXT STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF COAST. OVERALL BEYOND SUNDAY...KEPT GENERAL BLEND GOING
WITH BOTH POPS AND TEMPS AND WILL HOPE FOR BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NEXT
WEEK. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPS. CONDITIONS DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD END
AROUND SUNSET. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILD OVERNIGHT SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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