Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 040606
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
406 PM CHST MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR A FEW TWEAKS TO WINDS
AT VARIOUS PLACES. TROPICAL STORM NOUL WAS ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. GFS DOES
THREATEN GUAM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS FROM THE
TROPICAL STORM BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW SO LEFT IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST.

EAST TRADE-WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK. A CIRCULATION NOW NEAR POHNPEI WILL MOVE WEST. MODELS
DEVELOP IT INTO ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF IT PASSING
NEAR GUAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALL MODEL SPECULATION AT THIS
POINT BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. A
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME A WEST SWELL BY FRIDAY. NEITHER SWELL WILL
BECOME LARGE AND THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION REMAINS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI NEAR 5N155E WITH A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DECREASED INTO
SMALLER INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION BUT MODELS INDICATE
GENERALLY WET WEATHER WILL REDEVELOP IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK FOR BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. NORTHEAST
TRADES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO. MODELS
KEEP THE CIRCULATION IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BEFORE SENDING IT TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE UNDERGOING SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. GFS ONLY DIFFERS IN THE SHORT TERM IN NUDGING THE
CIRCULATION SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN EAST BY MIDWEEK BEFORE SENDING
IT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS CIRCULATION WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK...STILL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CHUUK FORECAST. THE BROAD AND
WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 5N155E WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

YAP...TROPICAL STORM NOUL WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS TO
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TS NOUL IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST NORTH OF YAP TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION FOR YAP...NGULU... ULITHI AND FAIS CAN
BE FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ81 PGUM.

KOROR...TS NOUL WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF KOROR AND WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM NORTH THIS EVENING TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
TO WEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND SURF
COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING REEFS. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR KOROR
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY CLOSELY CONFINED
TO THE CENTER OF TS NOUL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE MONSOON WESTERLIES SOUTH OF 5N. CURRENTLY MODELS DO NOT
SHOW THIS BAND OF CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD TO KOROR...BUT THIS
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.