Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 060503 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.AVIATION...
A CONSIDERABLE AC SHIELD WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SHIFT ENE
ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX AND SE OK THROUGH 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AFTER 08Z OVER E TX...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER
E INTO WRN LA AFTER 12Z. SHOULD ALSO SEE SCT CONVECTION CURRENTLY
ONGOING ACROSS N TX SHIFT ENE INTO E TX AFTER 10Z...ALTHOUGH THEY
SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE
TX/SE OK PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...BUT DID ADD VCSH MENTION FOR THE
TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY/PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS CONVECTION MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT SPREADS INTO SW AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME
NW LA...BUT STILL AM EXPECTING ANY MVFR CIGS TO LIFT/BECOME VFR BY
LATE MORNING. THE CU FIELD SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN THE
DAY...BEFORE LOW STRATUS DEVELOPS/ADVECTS N JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SE WINDS 5-10KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE OVER E TX.
/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWERED A FEW SITES OVERNIGHT LOW AND TWEAKED POPS THRU 12Z.

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN NOW WITH A SHOWER RECENTLY AS FAR EAST
AS MANSFIELD AND STONEWALL. SO WILL KEEP 00-06 GRID FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR SHOWING A BIT OF QPF ALONG WITH NEW NAM. THE
BIGGER PICTURE SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OK AND
N TX AND SOME AUSTIN WAY DRIFTING MORE IN OUR DIRECTION. ALSO IN
THE WAKE RAINFALL...PARTS OF I-30 ALREADY DOWN AT OR BELOW FORECAST
NUMBERS SO THESE HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND WILL LIKELY WARM A BIT
BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT
THIS TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP TONIGHT HELPING TO DEVELOP MORE
CONVECTION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  82  66  85 /  20  30  10  20
MLU  62  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  20
DEQ  63  78  65  82 /  30  30  10  20
TXK  65  80  66  84 /  20  30  20  20
ELD  63  82  66  85 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  67  81  67  83 /  40  30  20  30
GGG  66  81  66  83 /  30  30  20  30
LFK  68  84  68  85 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15


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