Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 210837
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
337 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION
SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE MORNING. OVERALL...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED.

STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE BAJA
PENINSULA TONIGHT SPREADING INTO TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN
RESPONSE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ALONG/SOUTH OF
WARM FRONT INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. A FEW ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL
AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA...IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH A LEAST A LIMITED TORNADO
THREAT. SOME TIMING UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN INCLUDING PLACEMENT
OF WARM FRONT AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE EARLIER MORNING
STORMS...ALL OF WHICH WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON ANY TORNADO THREAT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER AND MAYBE MORE SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS MAIN UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRACK OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALONG OK/KS STATE LINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AGAIN TIMING WILL BE KEY...BUT IT APPEARS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRY LINE SETTING
UP JUST WEST OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  49  68  50 /  30  30  40  50
FSM   73  53  72  57 /  30  20  50  50
MLC   74  55  73  56 /  30  30  50  50
BVO   76  46  65  45 /  30  30  30  50
FYV   69  48  67  50 /  30  30  40  50
BYV   70  49  63  44 /  30  30  40  50
MKO   73  52  70  53 /  30  30  40  50
MIO   73  47  65  45 /  40  30  30  50
F10   73  54  70  54 /  30  30  50  50
HHW   75  56  76  60 /  30  30  70  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....12




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