Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 272134
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
234 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY...WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY IS NOW OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF GRAHAM AND
COCHISE COUNTIES. FROM TUCSON WESTWARD SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT BEFORE
DEVELOPING AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
FROM AROUND THE REGION SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...OVER PARTS OF CIBOLA AND CATRON
COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO A POSITION OVER THE
DIXIE STATES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THIS TROUGH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BE SITUATED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND JUST
EAST OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR THIS WEEKEND EXPECT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TOO WEAK TO RESULT IN ANY `REAL` THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO ONLY USED SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...WHICH ARE TOO SMALL TO RESULT IN A MENTION IN THE TEXT
PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...BY NEXT MONDAY MODELS ADVERTISE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. FOR NOW I JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MOSTLY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FOR TUCSON HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
THEREAFTER. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...HIGHS
DURING THAT PERIOD AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TUCSON ARE AROUND 86 TO 88 DEGS...WHILE NORMAL
LOWS AROUND AROUND 55 TO 57 DEGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/00Z.  FEW-SCT CLOUDS 09-12 KFT AGL EXCEPT
LOCALLY BKN OVER MTNS THRU 28/03Z.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THRU
29/00Z.  N SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 28/03Z.
THEREAFTER...ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL AREAS AROUND 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KTS ESP VICINITY KTUS AND KDUG THRU 28/20Z THEN WIND EASING TO
7-12 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY.  GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH.  LOCAL AREAS PRONE TO AN EASTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SEE
WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.  AFTER EASING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN TUESDAY MORNING THEN EASE UP AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.  LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY.  MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MOLLERE

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