Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1200 PM EDT THU APR 2 2015


...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK NUMBER 7...

...THE FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN OHIO THROUGH MID APRIL...

A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS OCCASIONAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING MINOR IMPACTS. THIS IS THE SEVENTH AND FINAL ISSUANCE
OF THE WINTER AND SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND.

FACTORS TO CONSIDER WHEN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...SNOW PACK DEPTH AND
WATER CONTENT...ICE COVERAGE ON AREA RIVERS AND THE LAKE...SOIL
MOISTURE...AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

...OVERVIEW...
THE SNOWPACK HAS BEEN ELIMINATED ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. ICE IS NO LONGER REPORTED ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS IN NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF LAKE ERIE REMAINS ICE COVERED BUT DOES NOT
PRESENT A POTENTIAL RISK FOR FLOODING TO THE AREA. THE PROJECTED
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS SUPPORTS WARMER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN IN
THE AREA...THE LACK OF SNOWPACK AND ICE ON THE RIVERS ALLOW FOR A
NORMAL FLOOD RISK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST INDICATES A TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN WITH
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS. HOWEVER...
THE FLOOD RISK LOOKS SUGGESTS NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING AT THIS
TIME. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH PREDICTS
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

...SNOW/ICE COVERAGE...
THERE IS NO LONGER A SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA. RIVER ICE IS NO
LONGER PRESENT.

...CURRENT RIVER AND RESERVOIR LEVELS...
ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
RESERVOIRS ARE RUNNING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE IDEAL WINTER POOL
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF REMAINING FLOOD STORAGE REMAINS MODERATE
WITH MOST RESERVOIRS REPORTING 25% OR LESS OF USAGE AT THE TIME OF
THIS ISSUANCE BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS OF FLOOD STORAGE USED WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS A FEW EASTERN BASINS.

...SOIL MOISTURE...
TOP SOILS CONTINUE TO THAW SUPPORTING THE ONSET OF THE GROWING SEASON.

...LONG TERM OUTLOOKS...
THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE GREAT LAKES BASIN AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE OHIO RIVER
BASIN. THE ENSO OUTLOOK IS PREDICTING A 50-60% CHANCE OF EL NINO
CONDITIONS CONTINUING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS BUT WITH A
DECREASING CHANCE INTO SPRING AND SUMMER. THE LONG TERM
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS SHOW NEUTRAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SPRING.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
THE ELIMINATED SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE SUGGESTS A NEAR NORMAL RISK
FOR FLOODING. THE FLOOD CHANCES FOR THE REST OF APRIL WILL ONLY
BE HEIGHTENED IF ANY HEAVY RAIN EVENTS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND EXPECTED NORMAL PRECIPITATION
THIS SPRING...THE OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING THE REST OF THE SPRING IS
NEAR NORMAL.

UNLESS CONDITIONS CHANGE...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF THE
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK.


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