Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 192000
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...COOL/SHOWERY/UNSETTLED THROUGH MIDWEEK...

.DISCUSSION...ANY ISSUES WITH ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL COME TO AN
END MONDAY...WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT AND A DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT
RAIN/SNOW/ICE PELLET SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-200815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......9 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.24-0.36 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......42 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.25 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    OR SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-46.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1690).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....44-49.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.25-0.49 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........69-74 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......31 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.26 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.10 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-200815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......32 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.23-0.40 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........76-81 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......61 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....32-37.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    OR SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........64-69 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1700).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.18 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-200815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......38 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.36-0.44 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........79-84 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......61 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (420).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.17 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    OR SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2020).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    AROUND 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.14 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
400 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.33-0.49 IN.

.MONDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......48 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.19-0.25 IN.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 2000...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    OR SNOW SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-47.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........57-62 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (2340).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.18 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS OR SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 30.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JPB



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