Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 201040
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FD-15...FLORIDA PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
640 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THIS HIGH WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL
CROSS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1300...THEN 3 UNTIL 1500...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-3900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 18 TO
                    25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING
                    TO AROUND 29 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 64.

TIME (EDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........52     70     79     81
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........       CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP............78     81     82     81
RH..............74     65     63     64
20 FT WIND......SW 9   SW 10  SW 10  W 12
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15
DISPERSION IDX..32     29     47     67
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     30     70     70

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........95 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 1900...THEN 3 UNTIL 2200...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    2300...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 18 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST 6 TO 10
                    MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........80     78     79     72     66     66
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
TEMP............80     76     72     70     68     67
RH..............65     74     79     81     87     90
20 FT WIND......W 9    NW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     10                   10     10
LVORI...........1      3      4      4      5      6
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     40     20     10     10     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3800 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 41 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 31.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........46     61     61     61     73     73
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............66     66     73     78     81     81
RH..............93     92     73     63     56     55
20 FT WIND......W 6    W 6    NW 7   N 8    N 9    NE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     15     10
DISPERSION IDX..5      7      30     45     33     29
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     10     10     10     10     10

$$
FORECASTER...STRUBLE
REQUESTED BY...MICHAEL ORLANDO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150420.FD15_.01/JAX


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