Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 031556
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1056 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

                      VALID MAY 3 THROUGH MAY 8

...THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A large, disorganized Pacific storm system will continue its eastward
track over the next few days.  Deeper moisture has already spread
into New Mexico and Far West Texas, where Precipitable Water (PW)
values are running 150% to 200% of normal for this time of year.
Low level southerly winds will help spread gulf moisture northward,
and when combined with the influences from the previously mentioned
Pacific storm, will set up a favorable environment for the
development of showers and thunderstorms Monday through the latter
part of the week.

Another, stronger and more organized, Pacific storm will dive south
down the Rockies during the middle of next week, reinforcing the
large scale pattern for the remainder of the week.

At this time, areas of Texas west of Interstate 35 are still
experiencing various stages of drought.  Same goes for most of New
Mexico and Southern Colorado.  Rainfall across these areas will
be most beneficial and should help with the ongoing drought.

For areas of Texas east of Interstate 35, soils remain fairly
saturated.  Expected rainfall will likely produce runoff, and new
mainstem river flooding is a possibility, especially for the
Trinity, Neches, and Sabine Basins of North and East Texas.  Locally
heavy rainfall with any organized thunderstorms could potentially
produce significant river flooding on the smaller basins.

We will need to monitor this situation for possible flooding later
this week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for Southeast New Mexico and the Rolling Plains.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of New
Mexico, Southern Colorado, and the remainder of West Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for the Texas Panhandle and for North Central Texas.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for the remainder of
the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 1.50 inches
are forecast for North Central Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inch are forecast for the remainder of the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. Recent precipitation events have brought drought
relief to parts of Texas.  In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (31%), and about 6% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, a little
over half of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(56%). Lake levels in the extreme drought areas of Texas have
responded some, but many are at or near historical lows for this time
of year.  The rainfall expected over the next five days over the WGRFC
area will likely be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over
roughly the eastern half of the WGRFC area.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Widespread minor flooding is occurring in the Neches and Angelina river
basins. Each location has reached or is near crest. The stage on the
Neches River near Town Bluff (TBFT2) is being driven by releases out of
B.A. Steinhagen lake.

...Brazos Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The Navasota River in the Brazos River system will remain in or near
minor flood levels near Normangee (NGET2) for one more day as the heavy
rains from last week push thought the area. Additional rises are
expected to develop in the upper portions of the Normangee River system
again this week, so the drop below flood stage should be short lived.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend will continue full 2-unit continuous power generation
producing approx 15,000 cfs outflow; therefore, Deweyville (DWYT2) will
remain above minor flood levels through the week. The river system
remains saturated and the short break from rainfall will not be long
enough to fully recover before the next round of flooding will begin
late Tuesday and Wednesday.

...Trinity Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flow will continue as the flood water
from earlier this week continues its trip to the Gulf.  Lake
Livingston continues to remain full and is passing the extra water from
upstream through it`s flood gates. The river at Riverside (RVRT2) is
above action stage and will stay there for another day or two while the
lake continues it releases.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Minor flooding continues in the Brazos, Neches, and Sabine River
basins.  No significant rainfall sufficient to cause additional
flooding is expected until Tuesday/Wednesday when the next upper
level system starts developing several rounds of precipitation as it
slowly moves eastward. The favored areas for now would be the Trinity
River basin in and around Dallas and the uppermost section of the
Sabine and Neches Rivers.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

WALLER


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