Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 020620
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 AM EDT THU APR 02 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID APR 02/1200 UTC THRU APR 03/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

...CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTL PLAINS...

S/WV TROF INITIALLY ALONG THE CNTL PAC COAST REGION IS FCST TO
EJECT FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THIS PD ACRS THE GT BASIN TOWARD THE CNTL
ROCKIES BY THUR EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING INTO THE PLAINS BY
FRI MRNG.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY MSTR STARVED AS IT TRACKS
ACRS THE GT BASIN WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OVER SOME OF THE HIER
TERRAIN..IE THE WASATCH.   AS SYSTEM REACHES THE ROCKIES...THE
BROAD SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH LEFT EXIT REGION JET WILL BEGIN TO
TAP FAVORABLE ELY POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACRS SE WY INTO MUCH
OF NRN/ERN CO TO SUPPORT AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN CHANGING
QUICKLY TO SNOW NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND POINTS WEST.  RAINS EAST
OF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD EXPAND EWD THROUGH CNTL KS THUR NIGHT AS
ASSOCD SFC/85H LOW TRACKS EWD ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT DRAPED
ACRS THE KS/OK REGION.  LIKE THE IDEA OF THE 00Z NAM AND CANADIAN
GEM IN MAINTAINING A NARROW BAND OF MODEST PCPN ACRS KS GIVEN STG
LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS AND DEFINABLE 85H CIRC TRACKING ACRS
THE AREA...DESPITE HIER PWS AXIS FOCUSED WELL TO THE EAST. ACRS
CO...MODELS SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AXIS OF .25 TO .50
INCH PLUS LIQUID EQUIVS ACRS NRN CO INTO SE WY...THOUGH 12Z
CANADIAN GLOBAL SEEMED A BIT ON THE SLOW END OF GUIDANCE.  SEE
QPFHSD FOR WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

...MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH/NRN TN VALLEY AND NE...

A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT WITH PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS IS EXPECTED
ACRS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY THIS PD
ESPECIALLY THUR NIGHT.  STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCD NRN STREAM S/WV WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PD ACRS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND
MID WEST AIDED BY A TANDEM OF WEAK VORTS LIFTING NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF NRN STREAM S/WV THROUGH THE REGION.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACRS THE NRN OH VALLEY INTO THE NE U.S. THROUGH
LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH SRN MO/NRN
OK REGION IN RESPONSE TO PRES FALLS ASSOCD WITH QUICK MOVING
UPSTREAM S/WV PUSHING ACRS THE CNTL/SRN ROCKIES THUR EVENING.
MODELS SHOW GRADUAL POOLING OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCH PWS ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE BNDRY LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WITH CONFLUENT SWLY
85H FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KTS FEEDING INTO THE BNDRY.  WITH THIS
FOCUSED LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ACRS OK...POTL WILL EXIST
FOR STORMS TO BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED ALONG THE AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT..WITH PSBLY BACKBUILDING/TRAINING TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FROM
THE VCNTY OF THE OH RIVER WWD THRU SRN MO AS UPR FLOW BECOMES
ORIENTED WITH THE SFC BNDRY.  STGEST STORMS WITH HEAVIEST RAIN
RATES ARE LIKELY THUR NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW WEAK COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE DVLPG.  AS FAR AS MODEL PREFERENCE...THOUGHT A BLEND THE
NAM CONEST/CANADIAN GEM AXIS LOOKED REASONABLE AND WAS GENLY
SUPPORTED BY REFORECAST DATA..WITH AREAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 PLUS
INCHES FROM NEAR THE MO/IL BORDER EWD INTO THE BORDER OF SW OH AND
NRN KY.  SOME OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WHICH IS CERTAINLY PSBL. FARTHER N...WARM
FRONTAL BNDRY LIFTING NWD ACRS NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
A SNOW TO RAIN SITUATION THERE WITH SOME MDT QPF AMOUNTS OVER
EXTREME NRN MAINE.  SEE QPFHSD FOR WINTER WEATHER DETAILS.

...PAC NW...

MODELS SHOW GENL AGREEMENT HERE ON TIMING OF UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT APCHG THE PAC NW COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAIN PCPN AXIS WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO COASTAL WA BY THE END OF
THE PD...SO GENLY WENT WITH MODEL BLEND OF VERY SIMILAR MODEL QPFS
HERE WITH MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

SULLIVAN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 03/12Z
 0.01 485614 489620 492625 496631 499635 502642 505648 508653
      512659 515664 518671 521676 524682 527689 532707 532728
      528735 529737 528743 527751 530756 535762 542782 545787
      545793 544798 541804 540810 536811 528812 518814 514812
      509813 506813 504811 501811 500814 494825 491832 488838
      486841 486846 487858 484867 479875 475882 470888 465888
      463883 463878 464874 461872 458877 456882 454888 451893
      442910 436916 429919 422921 417924 406935 406941 407945
      410956 414977 421000 422007 422015 421029 421037 421045
      423049 428058 429068 428073 428079 432083 439086 444089
      448088 449084 448081 444078 441075 438074 436076 434073
      434071 440066 448070 453078 453083 454088 456093 460095
      472098 478099 482102 487103 490106 493111 494115 492118
      493122 498125 502124 505124 509125 511128 515137 520146
      526161 519165 516166 512163 508160 504158 502155 499154
      492153 487152 484149 479149 476152 471161 464164 462167
      462171 463173 463178 457184 455186 453186 448165 436155
      435150 436143 436138 438134 446130 449129 451125 449122
      445121 440115 438113 435112 431112 417118 414120 410120
      405118 400117 397119 394121 390122 382124 380122 379118
      380114 383112 392110 395107 395101 400103 403100 404093
      405084 403082 401083 398087 396094 393096 392093 394090
      393087 391086 390088 387091 383093 383089 381086 375084
      372077 374073 372069 369066 371063 382064 383059 380057
      377054 372053 372048 375046 378037 380031 378026 377020
      378013 381010 381003 381996 379991 375981 367974 363969
      357966 353965 348967 344967 341969 332971 327971 326967
      336956 347942 349930 353916 352911 346911 341911 335911
      332911 328909 326906 326903 325896 332886 341872 342868
      342862 339857 336855 323845 316841 308835 301830 298826
      293825 282824 279822 276819 282813 277810 275805 276802
      279803 285804
 0.01 285804 290807 289811 288813 285815 288816 294820 299822
      305824 318829 331830 336826 343821 348819 356818 358816
      363815 367809 371806 374800 379784 381778 383772 387765
      390760 392754 395747 402734 409725 412719 415710 418705
      420699 422689 424682 431653 433647 436641 440635 445629
 0.01 516264 515260 514255 510246 505238 500228 498220 496215
      491213 484209 480209 476207 473208 471212 464217 461218
      457218 455221 458226 462226 465224 473219 480220 489224
      499241 506259 510266 514267 516264
 0.01 537907 537891 533878 532872 528867 520863 502870 499873
      497879 491890 484896 480899 477904 475907 475915 475925
      477930 481943 482949 486952 489954 495955 496957 499957
      504957 513952 515952 517950 520947 531928 537907
 0.01 511284 511279 509275 507269 504263 499256 495246 492241
      489238 485238 482234 480230 476230 472232 467233 459233
      457234 456236 456239 459241 464242 463246 456253 444267
      444271 447276 450279 456282 460284 464283 473280 481279
      486280 492284 500288 504289 509286 511284
 0.01 521194 522188 520183 518179 515175 512171 509168 506170
      505176 506180 509183 514185 517189 518194 521194
 0.01 531000 531982 528968 525968 520972 517975 514978 512975
      506965 501965 494964 490965 487967 487969 486974 487979
      485982 482994 483001 487007 486019 486029 489035 492046
      494052 494064 496069 498074 502075 505070 509066 511061
      516048 520036 524020 531000
 0.01 493094 493089 493084 493081 492078 490075 489073 486070
      484070 482072 482075 483077 485080 485083 486088 487091
      489093 491094 493094
 0.01 431185 430185 429184 427184 425186 424189 425189 427187
      428187 429187 430186 431185
 0.01 421176 421174 421173 420173 418172 416172 415175 415177
      417178 417177 419176 421176 421176
 0.01 420159 420157 421154 421152 421150 421149 419149 417150
      416151 416153 415155 414158 413160 414162 415163 417163
      419161 420159
 0.01 400141 399138 393137 390138 384138 382142 383145 385150
      386153 392154 394151 396147 399143 400141
 0.01 321812 321810 320810 319810 317810 315809 313809 311810
      310811 309812 308813 307814 308816 308817 310817 312818
      314818 316818 316817 317816 319815 320815 321813 321812
 0.25 505282 506276 504271 501264 497257 494251 490243 486242
      484248 480253 478255 477260 483264 491268 495275 499281
      503282 505282
 0.25 503736 503726 501718 493702 488690 485680 482670 475661
      470658 463658 456660 452664 449672 451679 458687 460690
      461695 460705 457718 454725 456734 457738 456742 453748
      450755 449758 451762 459768 465771 468774 470778 476788
      481792 485792 487788 490773 495757 502752 503736
 0.25 479238 477235 475236 475237 477239 479239 479238
 0.25 449790 448786 446784 445783 446778 447769 446763 444760
      442752 439749 434751 429758 426766 423772 418777 412774
      406778 399785 395791 383806 377817 373825 371834 369844
      365853 361872 359879 356886 355891 356896 359905 359912
      359919 357930 357941 358946 361949 368959 371961 375963
      379965 380969 383980 385993 386003 388012 391018 393025
      390032 388042 388049 390052 393057 394060 396065 400066
      404070 408071 415071 417069 419066 420061 418057 414050
      412045 412038 413031 413025 410015 406007 399995 390981
      387971 386961 385948 389940 393935 396928 400921 405914
      417903 424895 428888 430882 431871 439856 443849 445839
      446831 445823 442815 443809 445803 447794 449790
 0.25 432094 431093 430092 429091 428089 427089 428091 429093
      430094 431095 432094
 0.25 420884 420883 418882 416880 415879 414879 413879 412880
      412882 412884 412887 412889 411891 412894 413894 413893
      415892 416891 416890 417889 418887 418886 420884 420884
 0.25 352833 351831 349833 348835 347838 348839 350838 351837
      351835 351834 352833
 0.50 503278 504273 501268 500264 498260 495256 492251 490247
      488249 488257 489261 492265 495268 497272 499277 503278
      503278
 0.50 482713 481703 478694 475682 472674 469672 466674 466680
      469684 472693 473700 469708 468716 476716 481716 482713
 0.50 424798 424794 422790 414788 411786 409788 402794 396798
      391803 385810 381817 378823 375832 369851 361887 360892
      361897 362907 362918 361932 360940 363947 366950 370952
      375954 380952 381944 385936 393920 395912 396901 398890
      399878 401871 405864 415847 417840 417832 418821 420811
      424798
 0.50 416064 416060 414057 411054 406049 405042 405038 403037
      400037 399039 396046 397054 401058 405061 410064 413066
      416064
 0.50 399012 399008 398005 397002 396999 394995 392993 391990
      389990 389995 389000 390004 390006 392010 393013 395015
      399014 399012
 1.00 401830 397820 393816 391814 388815 383824 378836 374845
      370858 365883 364890 365898 366905 368914 367924 366932
      366935 368938 370942 374939 377933 379927 385900 389891
      393878 396867 400853 401830
 1.50 397839 397835 396832 393833 389835 379843 374855 370871
      368878 367887 369896 369899 373901 376905 380906 381901
      383893 386886 391872 395858 396851 396840 397839
 2.00 392856 393848 392845 392840 389841 385845 381847 378852
      374862 371873 370880 370887 371892 374897 378899 380893
      384883 388872 391860 392856
 3.00 386863 386856 385852 382854 380857 376862 375866 374871
      373876 374882 374885 376886 378882 381877 382874 384870
      385864 386863
 4.00 379870 380868 380866 378864 378866 377868 377869 377871
      376873 377875 377876 377875 378873 379871 379870

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.