Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 051724
SWODY2
SPC AC 051724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY EXIST OVER THE CONUS/ADJACENT
CANADA ON WEDNESDAY. AMID PREVALENT CYCLONIC WESTERLIES OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MIDDLE/UPPER
MO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/WEST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A WARM CONVEYOR WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND AT LEAST SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM/MOIST
SECTOR THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY TO THE EAST OF A HIGH PLAINS
DRYLINE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR DURING THE
DAY...WITH AT LEAST MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ANY EARLY-DAY
CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO UPWARDS OF 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD-MIXING DRYLINE. WHERE STORMS FORM/MATURE BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR.

MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH-RELATED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY...WHILE NEUTRAL
HEIGHT TENDENCIES OR WEAK RISES/SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PORTION OF THE DRYLINE.
ACCORDINGLY...CURRENT THINKING IS THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF
BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MATERIALIZE
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS/NORTHWEST OK...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...A
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDITIONAL SCENARIO WITH PRESUMABLY MORE ISOLATED
DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED FROM SOUTHWEST OK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST/WEST TX. SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE
MOST COMMON RISK OVERALL...BUT AT LEAST SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL EXIST BY EARLY/MID-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 05/05/2015



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