Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 040714
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AFTER MOVING SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. A WARM WEEK IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S EXCEPT
TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE FORECAST HASN`T
CHANGED MUCH AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA ATTM.
THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS STILL OVER
WISCONSIN. THE ECHO PATTERN APPEARS AS A PSEUDO WARM FRONT AIDED BY
THE LLJ AIMED AT SW LWR MI. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING OVER WISCONSIN
AND WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL DECREASE IN ECHO INTENSITY TOWARD
MORNING WHEN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AS THE FRONT MOVES OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA.

WE/LL KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE GRIDS TONIGHT AS THE ECMWF SHOWS A
WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING EAST.
THE GFS/NAM DON/T REALLY SHOW THE WAVE BUT DO SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR
THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING PLAINS LOW. TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT
TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE
THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THE CHANCES SEEM
HIGHEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE STATE OF WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BY LATE THIS WEEK. THIS BUILDS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THAT SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS DOWN AND INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE THAT
TRIES TO COME OUT OF THE WESTERN SYSTEM THURSDAY BUT THE ENERGY FOR
THAT SHOULD MOSTLY BE WEST OF MICHIGAN.  DURING THE WEEKEND A MUCH
MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC SYSTEM BOOTS THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. IT IS IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME
FRAME OUR RISK FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE GREATEST.
MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS IS REASONABLE BUT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT IN TIME
THIS IS... DEALS WILL SURELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND.

MY BOTTOM LINE IS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. BY 08Z OR SO...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN. HAVE NOT BROUGHT IN ANY PREDOMINANT LOWER VSBY/S GIVEN
THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z...BUT IN A
SCATTERED NATURE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY
AFTER 15Z ON MONDAY. DEVELOPING INSTABILITY MAY YIELD ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS OF LESS CONFIDENCE THAN
TONIGHT/S.

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN 12Z AND
16Z AND STAY THERE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. THESE MVFR CEILINGS MAY
STAY IN PLACE ALONG I94 INTO THE EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RIVERS ARE RUNNING WELL WITHIN BANKS AND REMAIN STEADY...IF NOT
FALLING EVER-SO-SLIGHTLY. THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME...THE PATTERN BECOMES ACTIVE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AND WE MAY SEE WITHIN BANK RISES.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOPED AND PROGRESS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE PRECIPITATION WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
BORDER WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER TOTALS ALIGNING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94. THIS FRONT THEN RETURNS NORTH NEAR MIDWEEK AND
PROVIDES ANOTHER DECENT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER
IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE MINOR AND NOT REALLY FELT UNTIL WE
GET INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOCATIONS THAT ARE ALREADY RAIN SOAKED
AND RECEIVE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE
MINOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS...OR LOW LYING AREAS THAT ARE TYPICALLY
AFFECTED BY HEAVIER RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL NOTE IS THAT WE ARE DRY NOW
AND GREEN-UP IS OCCURRING IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY
HELP IN TAKING UP A LOT OF THE MOISTURE THAT FALLS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...04









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