Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 300823
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY RAIN AT FIRST.
SNOW WILL MIX IN FURTHER NORTH LATE THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY SNOW
EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAINLY RAIN WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE INDIANA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN
INCH ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH OF I-96 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE
NORTH OF M-20.

DRY AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL
RETURN THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLDER AIR ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE PRECIP POTENTIAL AND PRECIP
TYPE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
EVENING. THE CLIPPER IS CHARACTERIZED BY A MODEST H500-H300 PV
ANOMALY SLIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM APPROXIMATELY
CHICAGO TO TOLEDO OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AS PRECIP MOVES IN AND THE COLUMN BEGINS TO SATURATE. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SNOW WILL BE MORE COMMON...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-96.
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS DROP RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 06Z. AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-96.

SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS
IN. FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED WITH A RUN
AT 60 DEGREES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SFC LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
ON THURSDAY. LOWERED POPS AND QPF FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS
ANY SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS RATHER MARGINAL...SO LEFT THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT. THE
PRECIP SHIELD COULD CLIP LOWER MICHIGAN WITH EITHER SNOW OR A MIX.

ONCE THAT GOES BY...A REINFORCING COLD SHOT ARRIVES ON SUNDAY ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MAY BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LOWER CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEPART TO THE EAST...WITH VFR WEATHER
NOT INTO KMKG AND SOON KGRR. THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES. THE WIND WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE VALUES BECOME WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY NIGHT...A FAST MOVING LOW WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY FORECASTS SUPPORT A RAIN EVENT FOR
THE TAF SITES. THE INITIAL LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH 06S DESPITE THE FALLING RAIN. IF
TEMPERATURES END UP A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER...WE COULD END UP WITH
A SNOW EVENT AND IMPACTS FOR KGRR...KMKG AND POSSIBLY KLAN.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TODAY AT 10-20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND TURN SOUTHERLY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. 2-4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED TODAY SUBSIDING TO 1-3 FEET THIS EVENING. A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY SNOW
NORTH OF GRAND HAVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

RIVERS REMAIN BELOW BANKFULL AND ARE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTING UP TO SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN
INCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SIGNIFICANT RISE IN RIVER LEVELS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EBW
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...EBW






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