Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGRR 222315
AFDGRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
715 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD AIR WILL BRING FREEZING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK BUT NO
BIG STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR THE 10 COUNTIES
THAT HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING SEASON.
DESPITE CLOUDS AND WINDS...THIS AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH IT IS VERY LATE IN THE SEASON TO BE SEEING LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS...THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVING THROUGH WILL ALSO BRING AN ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING...BUT ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE STRENGTH
OF CONVECTIVE DECREASES. THE HIGH GROUND OF THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA COULD PICK UP SOME MORE LIGHT ACCUMS OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE DECREASING ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND SFC
RIDGING BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO BEGIN
CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING...SO ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING
WILL BE NEEDED.

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE PRECIP SHIELD
AS PLAINS CYCLONE MOVES EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT
IT COULD REACH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. KEPT
FRIDAY NIGHT DRY FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

A RATHER QUIET AND COOL PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.  GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS LEADS TO HIGHER END CONFIDENCE.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR OR EVEN SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER SATURDAY
EVENING.  WHILE TO OUR NORTH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FUNNEL IN A
COOL AND DRY AIR MASS.  FEEL THE DRY AIR WILL WIN OUT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG I-94 ON
SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE MAINE COAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL KEEP THE COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH NO WARM UP IN SIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN...SO A MAINLY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 50S OR AROUND 60.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  BY THEN THE PATTERN OPENS UP AND BECOMES MORE
PROGRESSIVE ALLOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE OVER THE OHIO RIVER OR
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR KMKG...KGRR AND
KLAN. LOCALIZED IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR THESE TAF
SITES. GUSTY WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER
LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE COULD ACT TO LOWER CEILINGS ESPECIALLY FOR
KGRR AND KMKG.  WILL KEEP THE MVFR CEILINGS GOING LATER TONIGHT.
WE ARE GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...AND MUCH
LOWER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED AT 6 PM. SFC RIDGING MOVING IN
BY FRIDAY SO WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TOMORROW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

AS MUCH AS 0.20 TO 0.30 INCHES OF PRECIP FELL ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN IN A 24-HOUR PERIOD THROUGH 8 AM THIS MORNING...IN THE
FORM OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW AT TIMES. A SIGNIFICANT RESPONSE IN
RIVER LEVELS IS CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTED...BUT GRADUAL RISES ARE
ONGOING ON THE PERE MARQUETTE AT SCOTTVILLE. THE WHITE RIVER AT
WHITEHALL IS CURRENTLY ENTERING A CREST.

GOING FORWARD...HYDRO IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THERE WILL BE A
MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP ON THURSDAY DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE. RIDGING BUILDS IN...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ050-056>058-
     064>066-071>073.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...OSTUNO/JK
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...OSTUNO





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.