Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 040554
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
154 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WK HI PRES SFC-ALOFT TO RMN INVOF CSTL CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NGT.
ANOTHER MILD NGT...W/ LGT WNDS MNLY FM THE SSW. LO TEMPS FM L/M50S
IN RURAL LOCATIONS...U50S TO ARND 60F IN THE METRO AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU MID WEEK.
MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF MON AFTRN BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FA AS AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED.
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DVLP MON AFTRN. MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. HIGHS
L-M80S XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS...65-70 AT THE BEACHES. MSTLY CLR
MON NIGHT. LOWS 55-60.

ALMOST THE SAME SETUP FOR TUE AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE APPRCHG TROF TO
THE NORTH SAGS A BIT FRTHR SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN GET.
KEPT FCST DRY THRU 00Z WED. ANTHR WARM DAY WITH LCL SEA BREEZES
DVLPNG. HIGHS 80-85 XCPT 75-80 COASTAL AREAS...ARND 70 AT THE
BEACHES.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING SE ALONG THE
APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TUE NIGHT. NAM/GFS PROGG ONE SUCH SYSTM TO TRACK
ACROSS THE VA NRN NECK / LWR MD ERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL INDICATE
LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT. OTW...
MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS U50S-L60S.

SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRNTL BNDRY APPRCHS FROM THE NW WED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTRN / EVE ACROSS NWRN TWO THIRDS
OF FA. WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S...XCPT M70S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN WASHES OUT OVER SRN PORTIONS THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK). DETAILS
OF THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW ARE UNCERTAIN BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...MAINLY
OVER SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT.
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RANGE THROUGH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S EXCEPT UPR 60S TO LWR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS OF 06Z...TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG (ISOLATED
SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE IN COLDEST LOCATIONS BUT DOES NOT
LOOK TO AFFECT TAF SITES). A BIT MORE WIND BY THIS AFTERNOON THAN
PAST 2 DAYS...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SW.

OUTLOOK: SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO TUE...DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH S/SW
WINDS. BY TUE EVENING/NIGHT THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS AT KSBY...AND A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE THU
WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS NOW DOWN TO 3-4 FT ON THE OCEAN...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BENIGN CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO WED MORNING. THIS AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FROM ERN NC TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFF
THE NC COAST. SYNOPTIC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK
TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT THIS AFTN/TONIGHT AS THE
SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST WHILE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC. WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS DUE LIMITED MIXING (VERY WARM AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY
COOL WATERS). THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
TONIGHT. GRADIENT SLACKENS A BIT ON TUE...THEN INCREASES TUE
NIGHT/EARLY WED AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA ON WED AND
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N.
COMBINED WITH SFC LOW OFF THE GA/SC CST THERE COULD POTENTIALLY
BE SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO THE E/NE.
LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASE IN SEAS FOR LATER THU
INTO FRI...PARTICULARLY ACRS THE SRN WATERS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...LKB/DAP
MARINE...LKB/TMG



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