Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 182014
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
314 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

AS OF 1930 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT AND WILL APPROACH
THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR BY 01-02 UTC. AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT PHASES WITH THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH...RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING AND NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A WINDY SUNDAY
IS FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE NOW DEEPENING LOW ACROSS MINNESOTA.
AT THIS TIME...WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH 30 TO 35 KTS TO MIX IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE MID 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. GIVEN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL WEIGH HEAVILY ON THE 16-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS
BLENDED TO THE GLOBAL 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

WINDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...COOL AND DRY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW ENTERS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...MOISTURE SHOULD WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE...PROVIDING
NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST WITH PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF/GFS). WITH THE LOW
REMAINING NEARBY AND REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLE
JET STREAK...LIGHT SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AREN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND PROPAGATING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THESE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. THIS COULD CREATE RATHER CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MONDAY AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS
OFF TO THE EAST KEEPING NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND 20S/30S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING AND MERGE WITH A LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KMOT/KBIS/KJMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EMBEDDED MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD









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