Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 012311
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
711 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING A WARM
FRONT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION BY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING ALONG THIS FRONT TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE MILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
THOUGH COOL SHARPLY BY THE COMING EASTER WEEKEND WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 705 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLEAR
SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. ONLY CHANGES
WITH LATEST UPDATE WERE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THIS EVENING TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DRIFTS ATOP THE AREA WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH 200 AM OR SO. AS HIGH SLIDES EAST LATER TONIGHT A
STRONG WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WEST. CAN`T RULE OUT A
STRAY FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE SLV TOWARD MORNING,
BUT WITH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND BETTER MOISTURE/DYNAMIC SUPPORT
LYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 RANGE, THOUGH
READINGS WILL TEND TO LEVEL OFF LATER AT NIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES DUE TO THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...BY TOMORROW, SURFACE WARM FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SIMILAR TO
NEAR TERM THINKING, I`LL OFFER A STRAY FLURRY/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH DURING THE DAY, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT AS
THICKER MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES STEADILY NORTHEAST WITH
PARTIAL SUN LIKELY SOUTH AND WEST BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY MILDER, RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ERN/NERN VT TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S
ELSEWHERE. EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE SLV. IT WILL ALSO
TREND ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS P- GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH TIME
ALLOWING GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT WELL ADVERTISED SURFACE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE
AREA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AS GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS ALL AREAS ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THE
FRONT WILL BE A RATHER QUICK MOVER HOWEVER, AND DESPITE GOOD
DYNAMICS AND LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE RESIDENCE TIME OF
STEADIER PCPN AT ANY GIVEN SITE GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 HOURS. THUS
LOOKING AT TOTAL PRECIPITATION LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH, WITH MOST
SPOTS A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. AGAIN, WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH FLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ON THE MILDER SIDE, MAINLY IN THE 40S.

FRONTAL ZONE THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THUS AFTER SOME LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS
CENTRAL/SOUTH A MAINLY DRY DAY IS FORECAST WITH VARIABLE TO PARTIAL
CLOUD COVER, THICKER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. AS YOU MAY HAVE
NOTICED I`VE BEEN HESITANT TO DESCRIBE THE FRONT AS A TRUE "COLD
FRONT" AS POST-FRONTAL FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. IN FACT, LATEST SOUNDING
PROFILES SUGGEST DECENT MIXING BY AFTERNOON AND WITH MODEL BLENDED
18Z 925 MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGING FROM +3 TO +8C ANOTHER MILD DAY
LOOKS QUITE PROBABLE. THUS SOLID HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL BE OFFERED
WITH A FEW MILDER SPOTS PUSHING THE 60F MARK. IF SPOTS DO HIT 60F,
THAT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE AROUND LAST THANKSGIVING, A
SEEMINGLY LONG TIME AGO INDEED.

WELCOMED WARMTH IS RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT A FAIRLY ROBUST SURFACE WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH WITH A GENERAL RE-BLOSSOMING OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. MOST CHALLENGING WILL BE THE NEAR-SFC THERMAL
PROFILES AND TIMING OF P-TYPE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW AS FLOW
TRENDS NORTHERLY AND COLD THERMAL ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST
THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. LEANED TOWARD THE MILDER/LESS SNOW
SCENARIO DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT GIVEN PRIOR DAY`S MILD
TEMPERATURES AND GROUND TEMPERATURE RESPONSE. HOWEVER BY LATER AT
NIGHT ENOUGH COOLING SUCH THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WET SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. BEST
ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT WILL BE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO RANGE GENERALLY
IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE (LESS FAR SOUTHERN VALLEYS AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TO 6/7 INCHES IN FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN LOCALES ACROSS THE
NORTH). WITH SFC/GROUND TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING MAINLY
A MINOR IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED, THOUGH A REMINDER THAT THE COLD
WINTER OF 2014/15 HASN`T TOTALLY PLAYED HIS LAST CARD QUITE YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...12Z ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING A
LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY SATURDAY. THE
REGION WILL BE UNDER COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY...SO HAVE GONE
WITH LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS OF SATURDAY MORNING FOR LIGHT
SNOW...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. MODELS
SHOW A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY 18Z
SATURDAY...SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT OR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

MODELS SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL DRY AND THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING SOME
OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THUS...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
SUPER-BLEND POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INCREASING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO AVIATION MAINLY IN
THE LATTER PART OF THIS TAF FORECAST.

VFR SKC TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST. REPLACING IT WILL BE A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
BETWEEN 08-12Z. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT SAME PERIOD BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT BASED ON
VERY DRY LOW-LEVELS. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BUT WILL TEND
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z.

INTO THURSDAY, INITIAL WARM-FRONTAL MID CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY MID MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN UP TO
35-40 KNOTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND TIMING WHEN FRONTAL INVERSION
MIXES OUT WILL DETERMINE WHEN SOME OF THOSE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.
INDICATED THIS GENERALLY 14-16Z AT WHICH POINT GUSTS COULD REACH
UP TO 28 KNOTS. SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IF FRONTAL
INVERSION IS SLOWER TO MIX OUT THAN CURRENT INDICATIONS. CEILINGS
LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z FRIDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY...AREAS OF MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

12Z FRIDAY-06Z SATURDAY...VFR.

06Z SATURDAY-00Z SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW.

00Z SUNDAY-00Z MONDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/RJS
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/LOCONTO


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