Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211325
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
925 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL LINGER NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE ARE NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION FOR LATE APRIL...WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLD POOL ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY AND MIXING IN THE REGION...WHICH HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN WINDS APPROACHING 45KT. THE SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT LOOKING AT
FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH AND AS HIGH AS 50 MPH. THE BEST
MIXING WILL BE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE
MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING
INTO THE 20S. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH (OR WEAK SECONDARY FRONT)
WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
THE DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME CU AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS. ANY SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP WILL HIT THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WHICH COULD INCREASE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOMENTUM TRANSFER
COULD TRIGGER SOME OF THE HIGHER WINDS THAT WE`LL SEE TODAY. NOT
CONVINCED THERE IS ENOUGH ELEVATED BUOYANCY FOR THUNDER...BUT THE
LIFT COULD SUPPORT SOME PEA SIZE HAIL IN ANY OF THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE SHOWERS. THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY IN
THE NORTH WHERE THERE IS BETTER SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. DESPITE LOW THERMAL HEIGHTS...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH (OR WEAK FRONT) SWINGS SOUTH OF THE
AREA.  COOLER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY THE  850MB TEMPS FALL TO NEAR -5C.  NAM CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.  STILL TOO MANY DOUBTS TO GO ABOVE CHANCE POPS.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SATURDAY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION. YESTERDAY THE GFS
HAD A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY SPREADING SHOWERS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA...NOW THE GFS HAS THIS FEATURE FARTHER SOUTH
AND THE ECMWF/CANADIAN IS SPREADING IN THE RAIN. AT THIS TIME UNTIL
THE TRENDS ARE CLEARER KEPT IT DRY. ADDED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. NONE
THE LESS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN
WARMING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR BUT BECOMING WINDY TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY.

MAINLY DRY TODAY WITH SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT. SOME QUESTION
HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS WILL BE...AT THIS TIME WENT WITH
SHOWERS VICINITY.

THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAINLY OVER NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE INTO THE WEEKEND.

CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS THE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE WEAK COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL OCCUR. THE THREAT OF THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WITH SOME QUESTIONS
DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY.

WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEED AT TIMES FOR MUCH OF THE LAKE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST AND THAT MAY MEAN
CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THE WEST
END BUT CONTINUED ON THE EAST END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ148-149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...JAMISON
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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