Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 062344 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
644 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY SSE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 12 TO 15 KNOTS
AROUND 02Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
RETURN (ALREADY OCCURRING AT CRP) TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. SOME POSSIBILITY OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS JUST YET. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. SE WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AT CRP/VCT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL/WRN CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. RECENT
LAPS ANALYSIS REVEALS CAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG OVER THE CWA/MSA
ALONG WTIH LOW CIN EXCEPT FOR THE WRN CWA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING BEFORE CIN
VALUES INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. LIMITATION OF CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
LIKELY DUE IN PART TO SIGNIFICANT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE DETERMINISTIC NAM SUGGEST SYNOPITIC SCALE
LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER JET...OVER THE WRN CWA NEAR 12Z
THURSDAY AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTN. THIS
UPPER FORCING MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE
FAR WEST NEAR 12Z THURSDAY THEN AREAWIDE AFTERWARD. SCT CONVECTION
MAY OCCUR OVER THE WRN CWA. RECENT BUOY 42019/20 SWELL PERIODS
NEAR 8S AND WAVEWATCH OUTPUT SUGGEST 7-8S SWELL PERIODS OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC NAM/RAP SUGGEST THAT WIND MAY REACH SCA
OVERNIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...NOT AS CONFIDENT AS LAST NIGHT
WHEN A DEFINITE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVED ACRS NRN TX/SRN PLAINS.
THE FOREGOING UPPER JET MAY PROVIDE A SLGT INCREASE IN THE MSLP
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. YET...MOST CONFIDENT IN THE SCEC SCENARIO FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH SOUTH
TEXAS IN A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT UNSETTLED WEATHER. A LARGE...SLOW-
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ACT TO TRANSPORT
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND PROVIDE WEAK SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT MOIST AIR
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.

RAIN CHANCES FRODAY AND SATURDAY ARE MAINLY FOCUSED INLAND WHERE
UPPER SUPPORT IS MAXIMIZED...THEN SLOWLY ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWFA
BY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD.

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS STALLS IT OUT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE ECM BRINGS IT INTO OR JUST THROUGH PARTS OF THE COASTAL BEND.
GIVEN THE DISCREPANCY...WILL HEDGE IN THE MIDDLE BY BACKING WINDS
SLIGHTLY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR SO. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE IN EITHER SOLUTION WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  84  75  86  75  /  10  20  10  10  20
VICTORIA          73  85  73  85  74  /  10  20  10  20  20
LAREDO            73  92  74  91  75  /  20  30  20  20  30
ALICE             73  87  74  88  75  /  10  20  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          74  82  75  82  76  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           72  89  72  89  72  /  20  30  20  30  30
KINGSVILLE        74  86  74  88  75  /  10  20  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       74  82  75  83  76  /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION



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