Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 062329
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
729 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA FRONT THURSDAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND HUMID...BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR RIGHT THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

7 PM UPDATE...

THE MCS THAT PROMPTED A HANDFUL OF WARNINGS AS IT DROPPED SE
THROUGH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS HAS MOVED
INTO MARYLAND. THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE
LAURELS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL STAY IN PLACE OR EVEN SINK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND STAYING INTACT ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ATTM WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT. MIN TEMPS
WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE PA/NY STATE LINE...TO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. THESE MINS WILL BE
5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND ESP THE LAURELS
WHERE SFC BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN RAMP UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS AND
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING CONTINUES. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO
IFR A POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT JST AND AOO. BFD WILL CONTINUE IN IFR
WITH THE LOW STRATOCU ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION WITH THE COOLER
AIR AND THE UPSLOPE FLOW.

LIGHT WIND AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH MDTLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY
DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE AT NUMEROUS
AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z THURSDAY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THU INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU


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