Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 202031
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
231 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BORDERLAND
LOWLAND AREAS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AREA LATE THIS EVENING. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXPECT BREEZY AFTERNOONS WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY A STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE AREA BRINGING CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA MOUNTAINS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION. DRY AND WARM CONDITION ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IF YOU ENJOYED SUNDAY EVENING`S WEATHER CONDITIONS YOU WILL BE
PLEASED WITH TONIGHT`S WEATHER CONDITIONS BECAUSE THEY ARE ALMOST
IDENTICAL. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS BORDERLAND LOWLAND AREAS. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SHORT WAVE RIDGE COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AREA LATE THIS
EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY AND THE
ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN THE AREA ANY STORMS
THAT DO MATERIALIZE WILL BE BRIEF WITH SPOTTY AND LIGHT RAIN
AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE BREEZY
CATEGORY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
SOCAL STRENGTHENS AND SETS UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY AND WARM WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

EARLY THURSDAY THE PACIFIC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. AT THIS TIME
MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON TIMING AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA BUT ALL MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREA
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY THE GILA WILDERNESS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
COVERAGE. THE GFS BRINGS THE PRECIP IN TWO ROUNDS...THE FIRST IS
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE GILA WILDERNESS AREA FOLLOWED BY
WIDER COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
PRECIPITATION IN LATER. THE FIRST ROUND WITH THE ECMWF ARRIVES IN THE
GILA WILDERNESS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY MUCH WIDER
COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT GIVEN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WHAT SEEMS TO BE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
THUS...HAVE ONLY SLIGHTLY MODIFIED THE POP/WEATHER GRIDS TO INCLUDE
PRECIP IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAIN AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
OTHER THING TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THURSDAY WILL BE WINDS. AT
MINIMUM...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA. DUST COULD BE A CONCERN
FOR LOWLAND AREAS.

FRIDAY MORNING THE LOW QUICKLY FILLS AND EJECTS EASTWARD LEAVING
BEHIND DRIER CONDITIONS. FOR THE WEEKEND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
RESULTS SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/00Z-22/00Z...
BKN CU WITH BASES GENERALLY 7-10KFT ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION AND EVEN AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NM
BOOTHEEL. A STAY DRY THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY DOWNDRAFT WINDS COULD
CROP UP OVER THE GILA REGION...BUT AGAIN THE OVERALL PROBABILITIES
ARE LOW.

ELSEWHERE EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD OVER PARTS OF WEST TEXAS TO SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ON TAP
FOR TUESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CU IS BUILDING UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AGAIN TODAY...AND WE WILL
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK OF A DRY THUNDERSTORM POPPING UP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GILA REGION BEFORE DARK.

OTHERWISE...A DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK...BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THU AND FRI LOOK
TO BE THE WINDIEST DAYS...BUT AN INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WILL BOOST RH VALUES RIGHT TO THE CUSP OF RED FLAG CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 80 FOR THE LOWLANDS) WITH A
SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FRIDAY.  NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 55  83  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           50  79  51  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              48  80  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              49  80  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              39  60  38  59  39 /  10   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   48  79  48  78  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             43  72  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  45  80  45  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               43  79  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      56  82  57  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               49  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            52  83  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              52  76  53  75  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  51  83  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            50  81  51  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          53  80  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           44  80  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   46  80  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                50  79  50  78  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               51  79  52  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 43  69  43  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               41  68  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                42  68  42  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 39  72  38  71  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               45  77  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               45  80  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            39  71  38  69  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  42  74  41  73  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   41  78  40  77  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              37  75  35  74  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 44  74  42  73  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  48  79  46  79  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 45  79  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          46  78  46  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              44  74  44  74  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PAZOS/HARDIMAN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.