Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051128
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
728 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FORECAST
AREA CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. INCREASED ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A FEW MORE CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT TO SEE SCT-BKN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS.  WEAK VORT MAX IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NE MOUNTAINS...WILL COMBINE WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AND WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE.  GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR.

ATWELL

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM RUN TO RUN BY KEEPING THE FUTURE
COASTAL LOW JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BEFORE PULLING IT OUT TO
SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST
COAST...THE COASTAL LOW WILL HANG AROUND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEN AS THE WESTERN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN THE UPPER FLOW AND
HEAD OUT TO SEA. BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW USUALLY
BRINGS SUBSIDENCE...IE DRY WEATHER...HOWEVER THE GFS IS STILL
TRYING TO BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT FEW-SCT060 WITH BKN090 POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
WILL STAY SE WITH 5-7KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

ATWELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          82  56  83  58 /   5  10   5   0
ATLANTA         80  58  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     78  51  79  56 /  20  20  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    82  55  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
COLUMBUS        83  57  83  60 /   5   5   5   5
GAINESVILLE     81  56  81  59 /   5   5   5   5
MACON           83  54  82  58 /   5   5   5   5
ROME            84  54  83  55 /   0   5   5   5
PEACHTREE CITY  81  53  82  57 /   5   5   5   5
VIDALIA         83  59  83  61 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ATWELL



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