Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 031141
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
441 AM MST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..

&&

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS KEPT A
FEW SHOWERS GOING OVER NIGHT IN YAVAPAI COUNTY, SOUTHERN COCONINO
COUNTY AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
INCREASE AGAIN TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOIST, INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF GETTING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM WITHIN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW
CAUSING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.20 TO 0.60
INCH RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM, AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GREATLY DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA. LONGER TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE REGION
IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. RIGHT NOW, THE MAIN EFFECTS
WOULD LIKELY BE GUSTY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE IN NW ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CU/TCU/CB WITH BASES FROM 5-8KFT AGL. SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA PRODUCING MOSTLY VFR...BUT ISOLD MVFR IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST FROM 18Z-02Z. SFC WINDS SW
15-25KTS...CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 45KTS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TODAY
AND MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES TOWARD
THE DISTRICT. ACTIVITY WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH BASED...BUT COVERAGE
AND EFFICIENCY WILL INCREASE OVER TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AND SOUTHWEST...CONVECTIVE GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS MAY
EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES.

.TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ON TUESDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE DRYING TREND WILL COME INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE DISTRICT LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION....PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON



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