Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 062034 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH LINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
248 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND WEST OF A NOCONA TO
WEATHERFORD TO CISCO LINE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG A LAWTON TO SWEETWATER TO JUNCTION LINE WHERE THE
AIR MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH VERY HIGH CAPE AND ENOUGH HELICITY
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 LIKE
YESTERDAY WITH A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY BY 10 PM.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN 20-50 POPS OVER THE REGION FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THINGS GEAR UP OVER THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ALSO...THERE WILL BE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 1.90
INCHES. THUS...WE EXPECT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS AND RIVER
RISES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY MONDAY AND AROUND
MID CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH IT. HOWEVER...WE WILL
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 ON TUESDAY.

THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS CONCERNING
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GOES...HOW FAST IT RETURNS AND
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WHEN
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS...THUS HAVE WEIGHTED THE
MID WEEK FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT MODELS WHICH KEEP
THE COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
BRINGING IT BACK NORTH. 75

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/
MVFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING TO VFR AND EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE BASED
FORECAST AS MOS CONTINUES TO LOOKS A LITTLE TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH
CLOUD HEIGHTS. MVFR STRATUS WILL DEVELOP/ARRIVE AGAIN TONIGHT
AROUND 3-5Z AT ALL SITES. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...BUT
ONLY PROBABLE ENOUGH AT WACO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF IT IN THE
TAF.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LOW AT THE TAF SITES...BUT CERTAINLY NOT
ZERO. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR COVERAGE. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE FAR
ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY
AFW/FTW MID-LATE EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS
CLOSELY.

TR.92


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  82  69  81  70 /  30  40  30  40  40
WACO, TX              69  82  69  83  70 /  20  30  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             66  79  68  81  69 /  20  40  30  30  50
DENTON, TX            67  81  69  80  69 /  40  50  40  40  40
MCKINNEY, TX          67  80  69  80  69 /  20  40  30  40  40
DALLAS, TX            68  83  69  82  70 /  30  30  30  40  30
TERRELL, TX           68  82  68  82  69 /  20  30  30  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         68  82  69  83  70 /  20  30  30  40  30
TEMPLE, TX            70  83  69  83  70 /  20  30  20  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  80  68  80  69 /  40  50  40  50  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/75



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