Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 061414
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
914 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. THINK THE BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO
FIZZLE OUT AS IT TRACKS NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY
VERY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AND NO THUNDER LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...AS INSTABILITY BUILDS...THE FOCUS
WILL SHIFT WEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION LATER THE DAY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST TO EAST/NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. THINK THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES
COULD SEE ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS 4 PM...WITH INCREASING CHANCES
ACROSS THE TRI CITIES AROUND 7PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING FOR A WHILE. TO THE SOUTHEAST THERE
IS A SHIELD OF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING IN IT AS WELL.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
KEEP THE MOISTURE STREAM PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY THIS AFTERNOON THERE ARE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT LEAD TO SOME CONCERN. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THERE WILL BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE 4KM WRF DOES NOT BRING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE LATER. THE
MUCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE HIGHER MUCAPE COMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DURING THE NIGHT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH EAST...BUT THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES INCLUDE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE AN INCLEMENT WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE
WEEKEND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WAS USED AS THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A GENERALLY GOOD CONTINUITY OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
KEPT SIMILAR POPS AND TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT
I DID RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WE COULD GET WELL INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. OUR
BEST SHOT A STAYING DRY WILL BE MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

IT APPEARS THAT OUR NEXT SHOT AT SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A BIT
LATER COMPARED TO WHAT THE THINKING WAS 24 HOURS AGO...PERHAPS
TOWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE EXPECTED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
CROSSING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY POTENTIALLY. A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS USUALLY A SORT OF RED FLAG FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. BULK SHEAR STILL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE...IN THE 40 TO 60 KTS RANGE. INSTABILITY IS A BIT OF A
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS IT COULD BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE AND PERHAPS MORE TOWARD 1500 J/KG IN OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
THE HIGHER INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTH PROMPTED ME TO GO A BIT
STRONGER WITH THE WORDING AND ELEVATED PLACEMENT OF SEVERE IN THE
EHWO FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS SOME STRONG SHEAR
COMING...AND THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. STAY TUNED. INSTABILITY IS ALMOST NON- EXISTENT BEYOND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SO ANY CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN WITHOUT THUNDER FROM
MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING...BUT LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THIS MORNING.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...JCB



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