Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 192345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AND SKIES BRIEFLY CLEAR
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AREAS ALSO CLOSE TO RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF ASSOCIATED WEAK JET MAX ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. MOST MODELS PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF IN THAT AREA...THE
ECMWF A NOTABLE EXCEPTION...SO WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS. DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING...POINT
SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND WET BULB
FREEZING HEIGHTS WELL BELOW THRESHOLD FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE
GROUND. ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH SO NO
HAZARD WILL BE MENTIONED. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
THEN...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL USHER IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH SOME ASPECTS OF THIS
SYSTEM AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THOSE ISSUES BELOW.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DRY FORECAST ISSUED YET
AGAIN THIS RUN. FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK...NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST AS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OFTEN POSSESSES A
NORTH BIAS IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. THEREFORE...REMOVED
PREVIOUSLY INSTALLED POPS AND WEATHER MENTION. THERE MAY BE A
SPRINKLE/FLURRY OR TWO BUT DRY AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG-TERM...MOISTURE RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST AREA AS A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT
MANEUVERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE IN PLAY AS A
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION FORCING MECHANISM. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS
THROUGH...ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT...NEARLY IDENTICAL TO
OBSERVATIONS WITH THIS LAST SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHERE
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE POSITIONING OF THE
FRONT...POTENTIAL COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR SLIDING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. FEEL CONFIDENT WE WILL
OBSERVE WIDESPREAD RAINS AGAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LACKING FOR
HEAVIER...CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED AMOUNTS. THIS IS DUE TO RATHER MEEK
INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES AND SOUNDING PROFILES ADVERTISED BY
FORECAST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES. FOR
KGLD...GUSTY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WITH
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
AFTER 06Z IN ADVANCE OF SOME MID AND UPPER LIFT/MOISTURE
APPROACHING. A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
LIFT. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE SITE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF.
SKIES THEN CLEAR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY.

FOR KMCK...GUSTY WINDS WILL DECREASE BY 02Z. PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SITE. AFTER THE SUN COMES UP AND
MIXING BEGINS...GUSTY WINDS TO JUST UNDER 25 KNOTS WILL OCCUR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...BULLER



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