Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 051959
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE OHIO
VALLEY TO REMAIN IN A WARM AIR MASS. WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS VERY EVIDENT ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...STRETCHING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN
THE 70S AND 80S TO THE SOUTH. THE ENTIRE ILN FORECAST AREA IS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH JUST BARELY.

DESPITE TEMPERATURES WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER LIMITED. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED BASED ON THE 12Z KILN
SOUNDING...WITH A REGIME OF WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY
WARM AIR BETWEEN 5KFT-10KFT. SOME SURFACE MOISTURE HAS POOLED
CLOSE TO THE FRONT (WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S)...LEADING TO
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY (UP TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE) THAT STRETCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST...BUT WITH NO SIGNS OF FOCUSED
FORCING (AND THE FRONT STILL BARELY MOVING)...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE. HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST
THAT DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURS WILL BE SCATTERED...AND MAINLY TO THE
NORTH (IN THE IWX/CLE FORECAST AREAS).

MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY...WITH A WARMER STARTING POINT AND
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. A DRY
FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FROM TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY. GFS/NAM PROJECTIONS ARE
INDICATING THAT 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM BY ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS
OVER THE REGION...AND THUS MAX TEMPS ARE BEING FORECAST ABOUT A
DEGREE OR TWO FAHRENHEIT WARMER THAN TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UNDER RIDGING ALOFT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN LOOK TO BE
SPOTTY AT BEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TO BE HONEST...THE CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE NOT ZERO FOR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY BUILDING EVERYWHERE (AND WEAK CAPPING AT MOST).
FORCING AGAIN REMAINS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR...KEEPING AWAY
ANY EXPECTATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. 12Z NAM/GFS PROJECTIONS
SHOW AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHWARD-MOVING FRONT (PRIMARY OVER THE NWS CLE FORECAST AREA)
AND ALONG A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE ILN CWA ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN DRY...AND A 20-POP WILL ONLY BE INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND MILD LOW TEMPS AROUND 60 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL START OUT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S AND END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ON MONDAY AND MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.  MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...KEEPING
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. DIURNAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME MIST DEVELOPMENT AT KLUK AND KILN
WHERE MVFR AND/OR IFR VISIBILITES HAVE BEEN PLACED UNTIL THE MIST
BURNS OFF BY 13Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CAN BE
EXPECTED. ANY THREAT OF A DIURNAL POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY APPEARS SMALL AND HAVE LEFT TAF DRY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HICKMAN





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