Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 061921
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
321 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE. A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE AREA UNTIL THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OVERNIGHT MONDAY. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

DIURNAL CU WILL SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET AND SHOULD HAVE A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS BUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
WARMER TODAY SHOULD SEE LOWS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. THOUGHT BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS CAPTURED THIS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW FOR
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP. EXPECT TO SEE SHORTWAVES
KICK OUT OF THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SOME DIURNAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY BUT WILL WASH OUT AS IT DOES SO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER WAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO PROVIDE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THERE IS LITTLE AVAILABLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR
DURING THE SHORT TERM SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SEVERE. AT THIS
TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COMBINATION
OF UPPER AND FRONTAL FORCING.

FOR TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE WAS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AND USED AN
AVERAGE. LEANED TOWARD WARMER NUMBERS WHEN DIFFERENCES OCCURRED
THOUGH AS LAST FEW DAYS HAVE TRENDED ON THE WARM SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO START HUMID AND WARM AND END DRY AND COOLER.

CONTINUING ON SATURDAY NIGHT ECMWF AND GFS SHOWS WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HINT AT
SEVERAL WEAK LOBES OF UPPER SUPPORT PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SMALL CHANCES FOR
TSRA CANNOT BE RULES OUT AT THIS TIME.

BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TSRA APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
IN THIS TIME FRAME...BEFORE ENDING ON EARLY ON TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 061800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH 080000Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. SCT CU IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT AS SOME AVAILABLE CAPE...THUS AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING DRIVEN TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION FOR NOW AS PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

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