Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 011336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS THINKING OF SHORTWAVE NEAR AL/GA
BORDER WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ALONG WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL
OCCUR. HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR ALL
LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET AND
PUSH INTO THE ATLC DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ALOFT
EXITS THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD
REMAIN ACROSS NE FL AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS
SOUTHWARD...MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. MILD LOWS NEAR 60 DEGREES
STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING IN BROKEN STRATO-CU SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR BROKEN CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE JUST VCTS IN CURRENT TAF
SUITE UNTIL ACTIVITY BREAKS OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW AROUND 15 KNOTS TO BECOME ONSHORE LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. SURGE OF ONSHORE WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS...SO NOT EXPECTING THE NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. MAIN IMPACT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  59  80  60 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  74  61  72  63 /  30  20  10  10
JAX  81  60  78  62 /  40  20  20  10
SGJ  78  63  75  63 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  82  60  82  61 /  20  20  30  20
OCF  81  61  83  61 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/CORDERO/WALKER


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