Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR


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