Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KLBF 260508
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1208 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS THE MID MISS RVR VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT EASTERN ZONE TEMPS IN THE 50S...WHILE MORE SUN IN
THE WEST HAS ALLOWED SOME WARMING INTO THE 60S. A DISTURBANCE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF NEB.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT SENDING A
DISTURBANCE AHEAD AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 61...ALTHOUGH MIGHT SEE ENOUGH EASTWARD
MOVEMENT TO REACH HIGHWAY 83. HIGHEST CAPE /AROUND 500 J/KG/ AND NEG
LIFTED INDEX VALUES /AROUND -1/ ARE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB
EARLY TONIGHT. NUMBERS ARE MARGINAL AND BECOME LESS FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT. THUS THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ONLY A FEW EMBEDDED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSHOWERS EARLY ON.
AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER DWINDLES. MEANWHILE
A RICH BL ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB HAS RESULTED IN LOW STRATUS
LINGERING. EVEN WITH THE LOW SHIFTING EAST...THE MODELS TRAP THE
MOISTURE AND KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO MOS
GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG. LOWS TONIGHT HOLD IN
THE 40S THANKS TO THE BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER.

BY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT LIFTING A WAVE OF ENERGY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL LIMIT HEATING...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
WEST. THE FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD LIFT ACROSS THE EAST...HOWEVER NOT
MUCH SUN AND HIGHS AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
MOVES EAST THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CNTL PLAINS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TRAPPING MOISTURE
IN THE 850-700MB LAYER ACROSS THE CNTL HIGH PLAINS AND WRN NEB. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THROUGH NCNTL NEB ALLOWING CLEARING TO
DEVELOP. THE MODELS SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENT 850-700MB UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
FORCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE SREF
KEEPS THE LOWEST VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WEST OF THE FCST AREA ALONG
THE COLO FRONT AND LARAMIE RANGES. OTHERWISE FOG AND DRIZZLE WOULD
APPEAR TO BE LIKELY ACROSS WRN NEBRASKA GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE
LOCKED IN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A PLAY ON CLOUD COVER WITH THE WARMER
HIGHS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND THE WARMER LOWS WEST OF HIGHWAY 83
WHERE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BUILD HIGH PRESSURE INTO TEXAS
DELAYING GULF MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE MIDLEVEL WARMING WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WARM HIGHS INTO THE
80S BY FRIDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS DEWPOINTS RISING TOWARD 50F BY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NRN PLAINS
FRIDAY EVENING. THE ECM AND GFS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF TSTM ACTIVITY
WOULD DEVELOP AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE BRIEFLY. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND
MORE ACTIVE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE FRIDAY. THE FASTER ECM IS
LESS EVENTFUL SUGGESTING LATE THURSDAY FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A
SECOND DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE FCST AREA SATURDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S
BY FRIDAY. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY WHICH MIGHT
DEPEND ON THE OUTCOME OF CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...REMNANT CLOUDINESS COULD PARTIALLY DISRUPT THE HEATING
CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS FROM MERRIMAN TO OGALLALA. IN AREAS OF SHOWERS VFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. STRATUS CONTINUES TO PUSH WEST AND NORTH
FROM THE EAST. LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS MVFR CEILINGS...DROPPING INTO
IFR CATEGORIES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SOME SPOTTY REPORTS OF
FOG IN MVFR CATEGORIES. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE.
SOME BR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z AND LAST THROUGH 13Z TO 15
Z TIME FRAME WITH MVFR CATEGORIES FOR VISIBILITY. LOW CLOUDS TO HANG
IN MOST OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS RISING INTO VFR CATEGORIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...POWER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.