Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 260837
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A MUCH MORE QUIET DAY IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS
VALUES NEAR ONE INCH OR LESS. ANY CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG...MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. IT
WILL BE RATHER WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT AND SETTLE ALONG THE COAST MONDAY MORNING AND BECOME
STATIONARY.

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING OVER THE
ROCKIES CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCH RANGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK OUT AS
EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
WIDESPREAD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. AGAIN A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL AGAIN
COME INTO PLAY AND PROVIDE LIFT TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS
NEAR THE COAST OR ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. COOLER AND DRY
WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY TREND WILL LIKELY EXTEND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBILITIES ARE BOUNCING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...MOSTLY FOR
TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CEILINGS
SHOULD NOT GET LOWER THAN 300FT FOR ANY ONE LOCATION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SITES DROPPING TO 1/4SM VIS. WILL ONLY TEMPO THE
1/4 MILES VIS GROUPS SINCE THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BE FLEETING
AND ONLY FOR THOSE SITE OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING LITTLE IF ANY TSRA ACTIVITY TODAY AND THEREFORE WILL NOT
CARRY IN ANY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL EASE THROUGH TODAY FROM AROUND 15KTS TO 5-10KTS LATER.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD
BE SEVERE MAINLY FOR WATER EAST OF THE MISS RIVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 15-20KTS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND AND MOVE TO THE EAST JUST OFF
THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST TUESDAY...NW
WINDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND RISE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EASE BELOW 15-20KTS
UNTIL THU NIGHT.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN
DEPLOYED...NAVY WEEK.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TONIGHT RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  88  65  78  60 /  10  20  50  60
BTR  90  68  79  65 /  10  20  60  70
ASD  88  69  79  67 /  10  20  50  70
MSY  88  72  79  69 /  10  20  60  70
GPT  86  70  78  67 /  10  20  50  70
PQL  88  68  79  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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