Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 181525 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD FOG AND LOWER
MORNING CHANCES OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL TO EAST...WHILE KEEPING HIGHER
OVER FAR WESTERN AR. THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER
EASTERN CO AND ROTATING UPPER LIFT INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
WAS OVER EASTERN OK TO KS...WHILE ALONG THE GULF OF MEX. TODAY AS
YESTERDAY THE UPPER LIFT OVER AR WILL BE SHEARED AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN OVER ALL OF AR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT INCONSISTENT IN HOW MUCH AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN...BUT DO EXPECT A SIMILAR
SITUATION ON FRIDAY. WILL FINE TUNE RAIN CHANCES...CLOUDS AND TEMPS
WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE. SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE
ISOLATED...BECAUSE IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEATING HELPING IT.
12Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD THE PRECIP WATER VALUE LOWER FROM 1.31 ON
FRIDAY TO 1.04 TODAY...WHILE CAPE 1100 J/KG AND LI OF -3. (59)

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO EAT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST
WITH THIS MORNING PACKAGE. THE OFT-MENTIONED UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST
CONTINUES MEANDER AROUND SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND MOVING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI WILL YIELD BROKEN ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA BACK TO THE NNW UP THROUGH TULSA. THIS WILL SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS LEAD DISTURBANCE/WAVE EJECTING FROM THE PARENT LOW
CIRCULATION OUT WEST WILL COINCIDE WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING FROM THE TX/LA COASTAL AREA TO WESTERN TENN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
LIKELY SEE A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AS THIS HAPPENS AND A BIT
OF A DRY SLOT MOVES INTO ARKANSAS. HOWEVER BY THAT TIME THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN BE RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA...AND WILL
FINALLY MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE ADVECTION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL
YIELD A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
AN AREA OF ENHANCED RISK NOTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT...BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL FALL WITHIN A
COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY
WITH RESPECT TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PATTERN STARTS OFF WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF ST
JAMES BAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE PINCHING OFF IN ITS BASE.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FEATURES...UPPER PATTERN OVER THE MID SOUTH
WILL GENERALLY BE FLAT...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT. GFS
SOLUTION HAS A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THIS FEATURE IS LARGELY ABSENT FROM THE ECMWF. IN
FACT...THROUGH OUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THE GFS REMAINS MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION VERSUS THE ECMWF WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH. AS SUCH...A BLEND OF
FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS MORNING.

THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
DESERT BY FRIDAY DRAGGING ANOTHER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROVIDE THE
BEST CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAIN TOO GREAT TO LATCH ON ANY ONE SOLUTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO WILD
TEMPERATURE FLUXES SEEN. DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
EURO NUMBERS THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  59  74  52 /  50  60  60  60
CAMDEN AR         75  60  80  55 /  60  50  40  30
HARRISON AR       72  56  70  47 /  60  60  60  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  59  78  53 /  60  60  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  60  78  54 /  60  60  50  50
MONTICELLO AR     75  62  79  56 /  60  60  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      73  57  76  51 /  60  50  40  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  74  57  72  49 /  60  60  60  60
NEWPORT AR        75  59  75  53 /  50  60  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     75  61  78  55 /  60  60  40  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  58  76  50 /  60  60  50  40
SEARCY AR         74  59  76  53 /  50  60  60  60
STUTTGART AR      75  61  77  55 /  60  60  50  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...56








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