Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210947
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
447 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS IS PRODUCING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGE FROM AROUND
40 ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER NEAR 50 DEGREES
AT TUPELO...AND 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH
TODAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS AREAS NEAR THE
MISSOURI/KENTUCKY STATE LINE FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DECIDED
TO TRIM BACK RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE MAY BE MORE LIMITED
WITH ITS PASSAGE THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. 00Z WRF/GFS INDICATE A
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY REACH AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-40 ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND HAVE KEPT HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST BACK
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THESE CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWER CONFIDENCE RAIN CHANCES EXIST WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS MODELS HAVE SOME RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES
WITH TIMING/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.

04


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

VFR. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING...SOUTHWEST
12-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT KJBR...KMKL AND KMEM. WINDS WILL BE
QUITE A BIT LIGHTER TOWARD KTUP. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO ABOUT 5
KTS AFTER 22/00Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.