Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 051625
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1225 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY
AND LINGER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1221 PM TUE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HIGH AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. MIN TEMPS FROM AROUND 50 INLAND SW TO
AROUND 60 OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY...THEN
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE SE CONUS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 10-11C SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO LOWER 60S WED NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COAST WED NIGHT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MED AND LONG RANGE MODEL SUITE REMAIN IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY WITH A GENERAL DRIFT TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETTING
UP A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWEST DRIFT OF THE LOW
AROUND THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE WEEK...
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONTINUE TRENDS OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND WPC...KEEPING PREVAILING WINDS NE/E GENERALLY 10-20 KTS ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRES AND
APPROACHING LOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE LOW SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH/OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE 00Z RUN
SEEMS TO BE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WITH RESPECT
TO THE TRACK. CONTINUE INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE DAY THU WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGHEST ALONG
THE COAST. AT LEAST INDIRECT COASTAL IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED BY
THE END OF THE WEEK (HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE
HAZARDS). A TRACK OF THE LOW COMING ONSHORE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
NC COAST COULD EXACERBATE THESE IMPACTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS DUE TO THE LOW PRES AREA POSSIBLY STILL IN THE VCNTY. WITH
INCREASED HUMIDITY VALUES AND STILL HIGH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES...IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL SUMMERY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS WELL INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 705 AM TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER PRODUCING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH BASED CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO AFTN
INLAND OF SEA BREEZE. MOS GDNC AND NAM12 SFC CONDENSATION PRES
DEFICIT FIELDS ARE INDICATING FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FCST THIS ISSUANCE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU
THROUGH SAT WITH SCT SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1224 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
RIDGE AXIS RUNNING THROUGH THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOSE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SPEEDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 AM TUE...THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUES TO DEPEND ON THE
LOCATION/TRACK/INTENSITY OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF OF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCES REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO CONTINUED MODEL SPREAD. CONTINUE TO RELY ON CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND MODEL BLENDS TO FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS WED
THROUGH SAT. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE LOW NEAR THE SE COAST LATE
WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND...KEEPING IT SOUTH OF THE NC
WATERS...THOUGH LINGERING OFF THE SE COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL
CONTINUE TO FCST S/E WINDS 10-15 KT WED...BECOMING E/NE 10-20KT
THU...THEN E/SE FRI AND SAT. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH HAVE SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3 TO 5 FEET NORTH...THU
INTO FRI WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRES AND APPROACHING LOW...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...SK/CQD
AVIATION...JBM/CQD
MARINE...CGG/CQD


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