Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 011743
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CHANGES EXPECTED THIS PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARD 12Z THU. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THU MORNING. CIGS EXPECTED
TO DROP INTO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE...WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
20-30KNTS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

MORNING UPDATE...

JUST UPDATED THE MORNING OBS AND FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SFC OBS
SHOW A WARM FRONT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI SLOWLY MOVING
NORTHWARD. THAT WILL CREEP INTO OUR SWRN CWA AND POSSIBLY BE A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. CONTINUED
THE SLIGHT CHC POPS. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODELS REALLY DO NOT
INDICATE ANY CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 12Z ACROSS THE WRN MIDDLE TN
AS THAT WARM FRONT REALLY GETS INTO OUR WRN AREAS AND THE LOW-
LEVEL JET STARTS TO KICK IN TOWARDS MORNING. BACKED OFF ON POPS
OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

FOR PRESCRIBED BURNS...WE HAVE A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
FOR TODAY FOR AREAS MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN MIDDLE TN. WINDS SHOULD
NOT GET OUT OF HAND THOUGH...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR WX THROUGH TODAY WITH
MAINLY E WINDS 5-10KT. TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE
REGION WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING S 10-15KT. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT
POP/COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

07





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