Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 250013
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL TRACK TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AND CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATES MADE MAINLY TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS EVENING. FORECAST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

UPPER LOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS IT REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR AREA
TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
STATIONARY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS DO SHOW PLENTY OF DRYING TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW LOSES IT/S
GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NW. THESE
WINDS THOUGH ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN LATE TONIGHT.

FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AS A MOS BLEND WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS CLOSE TO OR BELOW FREEZING. A FEW ZONES ARE BORDERLINE...BUT
WILL BE QUITE CLOSE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN FORECAST DILEMMA IS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR BUT FEEL FREEZE WARNING IS WARRANTED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MORE OF THE SAME AS UPPER LOW REMAINS SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT...AND TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE.
EXPECT HIGH/S TO STILL FALL SHORT OF SEASONAL NORMS...BUT WILL BE
WARMER. WEAK WAA DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP
TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 50S...APPROACHING 60 IN SPOTS.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL MID WEST
AND TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH MID WEST
SHORTWAVE...WHICH SHOULD GET BLOCKED BY THE PESKY LOW OFF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN AND AROUND
NYC TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BLOCKY PATTERN LOOKS TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
ACROSS THE CONUS. A LARGE PERSISTENT CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO PLAGUE THE NORTHEAST US THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURING THE DAY...AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.

THIS CUTOFF FINALLY EXITS ON TUE WITH RIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUE
NIGHT AND WED. DRY CONDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES THROUGH AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. GFS IS FASTER THAN THE
EC. WHAT BOTH MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE PHASING OF A NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DEEP TROUGH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE NIGHT. THE SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES TO
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THU AND CONTINUES ON A NE TRACK
THROUGH FRI. HOWEVER DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT THE EC IS
STRONGER...SLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER
OFFSHORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...THAN THE GFS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHC POPS
AT THE COAST...AND HAVE SCALED BACK TO SCHC FURTHER INLAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT FARTHER NORTH ON SATURDAY. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW TO NNW FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND
BACK WNW LATER TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS RESUMING DURING THE
MORNING...THEN BACK W TO WSW IN THE AFTERNOON.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS JUST OVER 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BEFORE 03Z.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WED...
.SAT...VFR.
.SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
.MON-TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GUSTY NW
WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET OVER THE OCEAN WATERS...AND BELOW 2 TO 3 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ABATE SOMEWHAT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT.

THEREAFTER...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP SUB-ADVY CONDS ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MARGINAL NW GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH WILL EXIST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND CRITERIA LOOKS TO FALL SHORT IN SEVERAL
AREAS...AND FORECAST RH VALUES FALL SHORT FOR SOME SPOTS. 1 AND
1O HOUR FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE LOWERED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...SO AN SPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE APPROPRIATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS AND FORECAST LOWS FOR SATURDAY APRIL 25

NEWARK NJ...34/1936......33
BRIDGEPORT CT 32/1956....34
CENTRAL PARK NY 29/1919..36
LAGUARDIA NY 36/1971.....38
KENNEDY NY *37/1971......36
ISLIP NY 36/2012.........31

*AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>070-
     078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
     103>105-107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/PW
NEAR TERM...JC/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...24/PW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...24/PW
CLIMATE...


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