Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 051926
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY - WEDNESDAY/...
A DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA CONTINUES TO
MEANDER THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ALOFT...A MID-
LEVEL LOW SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO EMERGE AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH THAT SITS OVER THE GULF SHOULD
BEGIN TO PUSH EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST...IT
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
EAST.

WITH LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE COULD DEVELOP AND PUSH TOWARDS THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD HELP CREATE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S OVER
NIGHT AND IN THE 80S DURING THE DAY. PREFERRED A MODEL BLEND IN A
FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE LOCAL WRF MODEL FOR
WINDS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND
WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST. MODELS
TODAY CONTINUE TO DIFFER SOME WITH THE INTENSITY...POSITION AND
OVERALL MOVEMENT OF THESE FEATURES BUT IN GENERAL SHOW A SLOW
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE LATEST
GFS/NAM NOW MOVING THESE FEATURES ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS MEANDER IT
OVER THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF WHAT SOLUTION PANS OUT WE WILL BE ON THE
DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THESE FEATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WITH ONLY ISOLATED (POPS 20 PERCENT) DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
SHOWERS OR STORMS EXPECTED OVER INLAND LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMNANT CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE FEATURE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINING OVER THE REGION. A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS (POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT) DOWN THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS...WITH COOLER
READINGS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLY BRINGING BRIEF
BOUTS OF MVFR TO IMPACTED TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD
REMAIN MINIMAL. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE TONIGHT WILL BRING PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
TO SCEC OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY MORNING BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. THE WATERS SHOULD STAY BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  87  70  86 /  10  20  10  10
FMY  67  88  68  89 /  10  30  20  30
GIF  67  88  67  89 /  10  20   0  20
SRQ  68  85  68  86 /  10  20  10  20
BKV  63  88  62  87 /   0  20   0  10
SPG  71  86  72  86 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR...72/NOAH



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