Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXXX12 KWNP 051230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 2339 (N12E73,
Cao/beta) produced an M1 flare at 05/0947.  It also produced a C5 flare
at 04/1705 UTC before it was numbered.  Another C5 was observed from
Region 2338 (N04E36, Dai/beta) at 05/0403.  Region 2335 (S16E18,
Ekc/beta-gamma) remained the largest on the visible disk.  With the
exception of Region 2337 (S16E35, Bxo/beta), which decayed, the
remaining regions all grew.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a continued chance for an
M-class flare (R1-R2, minor-moderate), over the next three days (05-07
May).  Regions 2235 and 2239 are likely sources of M-class activity.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (05-07 May) while the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels
throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal.  Wind
speed remained in the upper-300 to lower 400 km/s range.  Phi was
generally positive. Bt remained at or below 6 nT and Bz was at or above
-5 nT, becoming predominantly negative after 05/0400 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near background levels
initially in the period. Late on day one (05 May), a minor solar wind
enhancement is anticipated through midday on day two (06 May) from the
onset of a weak negative polarity CH HSS. A further solar wind
enhancement is anticipated midday to late on day two (06 May) from the
arrival of the 02 May CME.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels as effects from the positive
polarity CH HSS subsided.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels through the
majority of day one (05 May) under an ambient solar wind environment.
Unsettled conditions are expected late on day one (05 May) through
midday on day two (06 May) from the onset of a negative polarity CH
HSS. Unsettled to active levels are likely beginning midday to late on
day two (06 May) from the anticipated arrival of the 02 May CME.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.