Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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FGUS61 KTIR 312103
ESGTIR
WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
255 PM EDT Tuesday March 31 2015

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...
THE APRIL WATER RESOURCE STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK CALLS FOR GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MAINSTEM OHIO RIVER. AREAS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY MAY
RUN A LITTLE CLOSER TO A NORMAL APRIL.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...
ABOVE NORMAL STREAMFLOWS PREDICTED FOR APRIL OBVIOUSLY EQUATES TO INCREASED
CHANCES AND INSTANCES OF FLOODING.  ONE NOTE: APRIL IS A CLASSIC TRANSITION
MONTH THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE OHIO VALLEY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAT WOULD
RUN OFF QUICKLY INTO CREEKS AND RIVERS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH COULD BE
EASILY HANDLED BY THE RAPIDLY GREENING LANDSCAPE BY THE END OF APRIL.
.....................................................................

.PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...
A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SAW WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.  MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND THE CENTRAL (ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER) AND SOUTHERN BASIN SAW 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE MONTH. THIS GENERALLY EQUATED TO AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER EQUIVALENT.
ONLY THE FURTHEST NORTHERN REACHES OF THE OHIO RIVER FORECAST BASIN...NORTHERN
INDIANA, NORTHERN OHIO, AND SOUTHWEST NEW YORK SAW ONLY NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR AREAS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.  ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE BASIN IT IS GENERALLY NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...
WITH THE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MARCH, STREAMFLOW
CONDITIONS FOR THE MONTH WERE GENERALLY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.  MOST AREAS
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AS WELL AS SOUTH WERE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MARCH
FLOWS. ONLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN INDIANA GENERALLY ESCAPED WITH NORMAL MARCH
FLOWS.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE = WETTER

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL = SLIGHTLY WETTER

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
NEGATIVE = WETTER THAN NORMAL

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
NEUTRAL TO WEAK EL NINO = NORMAL

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
MANY OF THE MODELS, CLIMATE INDICIES, AND FORECASTS FOR APRIL SEEM TO POINT TO
ANOTHER WET MONTH FOLLOWING THE WET MARCH.  CPC GUIDANCE FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE MONTH IN THE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY.  SEVERAL OF THE TELECONNECTIONS AND
FORECAST TELECONNECTIONS SUCH AS AO, NAO, AND PNA ALSO LEAN TOWARD A WETTER THAN
NORMAL APRIL. THESE ALONG WITH THE SHORTER TERM MODELS SHOWING AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR THE START OF APRIL LEND CONFIDENCE TO A GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
APRIL, PARTICULARLY AS ONE HEADS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

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