Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011558
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

                    VALID APRIL 1 THROUGH APRIL 6

  ...RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS NOW
  THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Today, southerly flow will concentrate moisture across portions of
Deep South and Southeast Texas, ahead of an approaching storm system
moving eastward from Baja across the high terrain of northern Mexico.
Abundant moisture across the area should allow some showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the Wednesday into early Thursday time
frame.

Thursday, the upper level flow will become primarily zonal
making way for clearer, drier conditions across the area before a
stronger cold front pushes through the area on Friday. Models are
suggesting some additional precipitation developing Friday afternoon
through Saturday into Sunday morning with the frontal passage
stretching from northern Mexico up through southeastern Texas to
Louisiana. This system will continue to be monitored with the forecast
models over the coming days and updates provided as necessary.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for basins along the
Texas Gulf coast as well as far northeast Texas.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for deep south Texas into Mexico and for the northeast
quarter of Texas where the Neches basin is still experiencing
flooding.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (36%), and about 14% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, about two
thirds of the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought
(62%). Lake levels in these extreme drought areas are at or near
historical lows for this time of year. Recent precipitation events
have brought some drought relief, with no drought remaining over
deep south, east central and southeast Texas into western Louisiana.
The rainfall which is forecast the next five days over the WGRFC
area will not be heavy enough to create new or additional runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Sam Rayburn Reservoir has resumed power generation that will allow
flood storage to be slowly evacuated. Lake Steinhagen releases will
continue to hold near 19,000 cfs until Sam Rayburn Lake is able to
completely evacuate the flood pool, likely via generation. This
process is expected to take several weeks. As for the river flooding,
all points are receding from crests earlier this week.  Points along
the upper Neches should drop below criteria over the next couple of
days.  Town Bluff will be longer due to the releases described above.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Toledo Bend Reservoir is holding for the time being at 19,000 cfs.
There is a pooling of water between the Bon Weir gage and the
Deweyville gage which is causing the flow to be lower than expected
at Deweyville.  Also making it difficult to forecast flow and height
accurately, but it is expected to remain in flood category as this
water slowly works its way through the braided channel.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils are slowly drying out as the rain has given eastern Texas a
temporary reprieve  Down south, some storms are expected to develop
but move through the area quickly, therefore not producing
significant rainfall totals. Significant flooding is not expected
over the next five days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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