Marine Interpretation Message
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AGNT40 KWNM 061948
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
348 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
THE FAR NRN NT2 WATERS...WITH HIGH PRES RUDGE OVER THE NT1 WATERS
AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WATERS. THE LATEST RSCAT AND
ASCAT PASSES BOTH INDICATED LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT OR LESS OVER
THE NT1 WATERS AND NRN NT2 WATERS...HOWEVER BOTH MISSED AREA OF
INTEREST OVER THE SRN NT2 WATERS. AT 19Z...BUOY 41002 225 NM S OF
CAPE HATTERAS WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 37 KT.

THE MAIN FCST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE FCST TRACK OF LOW PRES
CURRENTLY NEAR THE NRN BAHAMAS AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY N THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AND POSSIBLE TRANSISTION TO SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL. THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36 TO 48
HOURS...THEN DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT. THE GFS/UKMET MOVE THE LOW
ON A NORTH COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN MOVE THE SYSTEM SW ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST OR IN THE CASE OF THE UKMET...A BIT
FURTHER INLAND. THE ECMWF/GEM/NAM ON THE OTHER HAND STALL THE
SYTEM FOR ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THEN MOVE N ALONG THE N CAROLINA
COAST OR SLIGHTLY INLAND. PLAN TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS USING
THE UKMET THROUGH 21Z SAT AS IT INDICATES GALES IN THE VCNTY OF
THE LOW...THEN WILL TRANSITION TO ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL CONFDC IN ANY ONE MDL IS LOW GIVEN THE ERRATIC
MODEL BEHAVIOR OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE MAIN FACTORS WILL
STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND LACK OF STEERING WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND TIMING OF
SYSTEM GETTING PICKED UP AND MOVING NE. ALL OF THE MODELS DO
INDICATE THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY MOVING NE...BUT THERE IS LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN TIMING. MEANWHILE...OVER THE NT1 AND NRN HALF OF NT2
WATERS...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU NIGHT
INTO FRI BEFORE BECOMING SATAIONARY FRI AND LIFTING BACK N AS WARM
FRONT. AT THE PRESENT TIME...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
GALE WITH THIS FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE WAVE
GRIDS...USED THE ECMWF WAM VALUES BUT DID INCREASE BY 20 PERCENT
TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER UKMET WINDS WHICH WERE USED FOR WIND
GRIDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z ETSS AND ESTOFS
INDICATE POSITIVE SURGE VALUES RANGING FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 FT
EXTENDING ALONG THE COAST N TO CENTRAL N CAROLINA BEGINNING THU
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. THIS MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE
AS FCST REFLECTS UKMET/ECMWF WINDS WHICH KEEP LOW PRES OFFSHORE
LONGER THAN GFS.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE THU.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE THU INTO FRI.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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