Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 050710
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

VALID MAY 05/0000 UTC THRU MAY 08/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPPING INTO THE
  SOUTHWEST U.S. WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUED TO SHOW THE BEST AGREEMENT TO THE LATEST
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SPAGHETTI HEIGHT CLUSTERING ACROSS THE WEST BY
THU MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TRENDS NOTED IN THE ENSEMBLES.
THE 05/00Z UKMET WAS A BIT FASTER TO DROP THE ENERGY SOUTHWARD BUT
IT QUICKLY GOT BACK CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY 18Z THU.  THE
05/00Z ECMWF WAS ALSO A TAD QUICKER TO DROP THE ENERGY SOUTH WHEN
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
REMAINED A BIT EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN.


SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WED/THU
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
08/12Z...WITH MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS STILL
CONFINED TO THE FINAL 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST WHEN THE MID LEVEL
WAVE IS SHARPER/QUICKER THAN IN THE ECMWF. THINK A COMPROMISE OF
THE 05/00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOULD MINIMIZE SOME OF THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES WHILE STILL BEING RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
UKMET/CANADIAN.


LOW PRESSURE LIKELY NEARING THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE/END
OF
  THE WEEK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 04/12Z GFS
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ECMWF/GEFS/CMC ENSEMBLE SCATTER LOW PLOTS CONTINUED TO SHOW
RELATIVELY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH POSITION OVER THEIR PAST FEW
00/12Z CYCLES.  THE 05/00Z GFS SFC LOW SHIFTED TO A MORE EASTERLY
TRACK...PUTTING IT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLNS.
GIVEN THE AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES...THINK THE 12Z GFS FROM
MONDAY STILL REPRESENTS A USEFUL OPERATIONAL PROXY FOR THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

BANN

$$




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