Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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FXUS62 KGSP 202302
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...POSSIBLY
BRINGING SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EDT MONDAY...

DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE IMPACTING THE GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG OFFICE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND RESOURCE ISSUES AT
THE PRIMARY BACKUP OFFICE IN COLUMBIA...NWS BLACKSBURG VA IS
CURRENTLY PROVIDING BACKUP FOR PUBLIC PRODUCTS FOR NWS GSP.
APOLOGIES FOR NO AFTERNOON ZFP UPDATE.

CLEARED WESTERN HALF OF TORNADO WATCH AS DEEPER CONVECTION AND
TORNADO THREAT ONLY REMAINS ON FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF UPDATE SC AND WRN NC.
SHOULD BE THROUGH GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BEFORE 8PM AND CHARLOTTE
BY 9PM. PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A STRONG REASON TO EXTEND THE WATCH
BEYOND 8PM HOWEVER. OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCE POP IN MTNS
FOR SHWRS BEHIND FRONT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BEHIND THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF CHARLOTTE AND
ANDERSON...BUT LIKELY POPS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXTREME EAST.

REST OF TONIGHT...DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. POPS WILL TAPER OFF...LINGERING THRU MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG
THE TN BORDER DUE TO UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW. LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE
CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AREA FOR TUESDAY...BUT
WITH BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW GIVEN TROUGH AND SHORT WAVE
PASSING TO THE NORTH AND DECENT MIXING UNTIL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NO NEW DISCUSSION TODAY GIVEN BACKUP ISSUES.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 240 AM MONDAY...

A BROAD AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WED. WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE TROF WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WED AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WED NITE. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE FORCING IS
WEAK. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCT SHRA NEAR THE TN BORDER WHERE THE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST AND WLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE FORCING.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED...WITH LITTLE CHC OF
PRECIP SOUTH OF I-85. HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL WED... WITH
LOWS NEAR NORMAL TUE NITE AND ABOVE NORMAL WED NITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO NEW DISCUSSION TODAY GIVEN BACKUP ISSUES.

PREV DISCUSSION AS OF 350 AM MONDAY...

AN UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY ALLOWING
FLAT RIDGING TO BUILD IN ON FRI. A SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER BROAD AND LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROF
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA FRI BEFORE A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN ON SATURDAY. PRECIP CHC SLOWLY RAMPS UP FRIDAY
WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIP ON SATURDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
FOR SUNDAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS THURSDAY...FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. LOWS BOUNCE AROUND FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...GUSTY SSW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS CU FIELD THICKENS AND EXPANDS.
THUNDERSTORM CVRG WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM WITH TIME AND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CVRG...A TEMPO TSRA WILL BE INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINAL
LOCATIONS ALONG WITH CIGS OCCASIONALLY DIPPING DIPPING TO MVFR.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DIMINISH TSTM CVRG 21-23Z TODAY FOLLOWED
BY LLVL DRYING/DROPPING SFC DWPTS AND THE INFLUX OF POST-FRONTAL
AIR. A WIND SHIFT TO WEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND GUSTS WILL
DROP OFF. CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...LEADING TO LOW PRECIP/RESTRICTION CHANCES.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   60%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   70%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...



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