Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 172344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IN THE UPPER DECKS A LARGE CYCLONE REMAINS PARKED OVER CO WHICH
HAS KEPT ITS SURFACE COHORT PARKED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
LATTER HAS KEPT ALL OF KICT COUNTRY IN A WEAK E-SE FLOW REGIME
WHICH...IN TURN...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO DOUBT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
HALF DOLLAR-SIZED CONTINUE TO GARNER THE GREATEST ATTENTION. WITH
A BROAD UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PARKED
OVER CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT`LL SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO A DEEP TROF. SUCH AN UPPER-FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP KS BENEATH A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW THRU SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KS TO WEST TX WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL) ALONG 6 KM BULK OF
40-50KTS REMAIN STRONGEST. SUCH A DEEP FLOW REGIME IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE MOVING VERY
LITTLE THRU SAT HAVE ASSIGNED HIGHEST POPS TO CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING
IN AN WEST-EAST MANNER AS A SERIES OF MID-UPPER DECK VORT LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE CYCLONE AND EJECT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATER
TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER-DECK CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT. WITH THE ATTENDANT UPPER-DECK WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO GET FORCED EAST...REACHING THE EAST COAST SAT
NIGHT. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
STORMS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EAST TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE DEEP UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT SE ACROSS
KS ON SUN AND WITH THE BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTHEAST KS SUN
AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS SUB-
DIVISION SUN AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL RAINS
OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF KS...WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
NEIGHBORHOOD SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TUE-WED:
DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS UPPER-DECK SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONAL REGIME.

WED NIGHT-FRI:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU THU AS THE NEXT MID-UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CHARACTER SHOULD SHEAR
CONSIDERABLY THU AFTERNOON & EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS & ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER &
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM WITH A
DRYLINE STRETCHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN KS. THE STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER WESTERN KS ARE LIFTING NORTH AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE FORECAST AREA. OUR BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE AROUND
OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AS A VORT MAX LIFTS OUT OF SW TX AND INTO
SOUTHERN KS. BY THE TIME THESE STORMS DEVELOP INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL...SO NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE STORMS. JUST
LIKE LAST NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF WITH THE THINKING THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DISTURBED ENOUGH.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH WET
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST TREND. THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  74  54  65 /  80  50  50  50
HUTCHINSON      57  74  51  65 /  90  40  50  60
NEWTON          59  73  52  63 /  90  50  50  60
ELDORADO        59  73  55  67 /  80  70  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  74  55  68 /  80  70  50  50
RUSSELL         54  73  50  61 /  80  40  60  50
GREAT BEND      54  74  49  61 /  70  40  50  50
SALINA          58  74  52  63 /  90  50  60  60
MCPHERSON       57  73  52  63 /  90  40  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     60  73  57  69 /  80  90  50  60
CHANUTE         60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60
IOLA            60  71  56  67 /  80  90  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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