Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 311546
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1046 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A SURFACE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE IA/MO BORDER
THRU CENTRAL KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. MOST TEMPERATURES ACROSS KICT
COUNTRY WERE IN THE 45-55 DEGREE RANGE. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS OF
1040AM THE TEMPERATURE AT EISENHOWER AIRPORT WAS ALREADY 70
DEGREES WHICH WAS SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER FORECAST WHICH WAS ONE OF
MANY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND USED THAT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. INCREASED
HIGHS TODAY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA AND DECREASED DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE AREA.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TODAY & TONIGHT:
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD AS A BROAD UPPER
DECK RIDGE SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
HAVE KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING AS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID & UPPER 50S ARE
MIGRATING TOWARD THIS AREA. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE
TROF WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE & WOULD
ALSO INDUCE WARM FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DESPITE EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SUN-DRENCHED SKIES WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. TONIGHT`S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS GULF MOISTURE MIGRATES ACROSS
KS.

WEDNESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THESE PERIODS CONTINUE TO DRAW THE GREATEST ATTENTION. AN UPPER
DECK WAVE THAT`LL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN & CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER ON WED. THIS CHARACTER
WOULD INDUCE THE WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROF TO STRENGTHEN WHICH
WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER AND INCREASINGLY WINDY WEATHER ACROSS
THE NEIGHBORHOOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING TO MIGRATE INTO KS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
INDICATING THAT AN EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WED AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS STILL SLATED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK WILL SWEEP A
COLD FRONT SE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MCS DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY WITH THE MCS SURGING EAST ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN KS &
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THE RAPID SE-MOVING COLD FRONT DICTATES FINE-
TUNING GREATEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CENTRAL KS DURING
THE EVENING AND EASTERN KS LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THURSDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT:
THE SE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY
AS IT WILL DECELERATE AS IT VENTURES INTO SE KS & OK. HAVE KEPT
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS SE KS WHERE CLOSER TO THE FRONT. POST-FRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE MOIST
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THESE PERIODS AS BROAD RIDGE
SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

ES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  RICH MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG OVER SE KS FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  EXPECT THE SURFACE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING.  AS THIS MOISTURE RICH AIR
MOVES BACK NORTH...EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO INCREASE INITIALLY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME IFR CIGS MOVING INTO
THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES AFTER 09Z/WED. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
OUT FOR SOME MVFR FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION THIS JUST
YET...AS WINDS WILL PROBABLY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

KETCHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN GREATEST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE HIGHER DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25-35 MPH WILL POSE A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE REGION. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  57  85  55 /   0  10  10  40
HUTCHINSON      84  55  86  51 /   0  10  10  50
NEWTON          83  56  84  52 /   0  10  10  50
ELDORADO        82  56  83  55 /   0  10  10  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  57  83  57 /   0  10  10  30
RUSSELL         84  55  88  46 /   0   0  20  50
GREAT BEND      83  55  87  47 /   0  10  20  50
SALINA          83  55  87  49 /   0   0  10  70
MCPHERSON       83  55  85  50 /   0  10  10  60
COFFEYVILLE     84  56  80  61 /   0  10  20  30
CHANUTE         81  56  79  58 /   0  10  20  40
IOLA            80  55  80  57 /   0  10  20  50
PARSONS-KPPF    83  56  80  60 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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