Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 241736
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS CENTER ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY-
TONIGHT...THEN RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AM...ALONG THE MID-UPPER FLOW. WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN KS TOWARD
09Z-12Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. THIS MAY AFFECT PART OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST...AND MAY POSE A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW/MIXING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR DISSIPATION OF THE STRATUS TOWARD LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN KS.

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER
JET STREAM...WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
OVER WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...WITH A DRYLINE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST
FROM THE LOW TO NEAR/ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR. FOLLOWING THE NAM-
WRF...SREF...ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE DRYLINE FURTHER WEST...AND ALLOW
NEAR 60 TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR IN OUR FORECAST
AREA. WITH PROJECTED AFTERNOON HIGHS OF MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM...MLCAPES OF 1500-2500
J/KG ARE PLAUSIBLE BY LATE PM/EARLY EVE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-65 KNOTS. SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL STORMS
APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE FIRST IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAXIMIZE NEAR THE TRIPLE PT AND WARM FRONT. THIS
WOULD BE TOWARD MID AFTERNOON (20Z) IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
VERY STRONG MID-UPPER JET STREAK. THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS
ALSO EXPECTED IN THAT REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP MORE TOWARD 23Z-00Z AS MID-LEVEL COOLING
OVERSPREADS THE DRYLINE WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SUPERCELLS...AND
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/EHI`S ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING OVER NORTHEAST KS LATE
TONIGHT...THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING SOME.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...WHILE ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS
DURING THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MODELS MOVE THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO
MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY LOOK DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES SPREADING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK...SHOULD MODIFY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO BY THURSDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AND CEILING
HEIGHTS RISE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS. THE STORMS COULD FORM INTO A LINE AND DROP SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    79  55  78  50 /  20  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      79  53  76  46 /  30  30  10  10
NEWTON          78  54  75  47 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        78  55  77  48 /  20  50  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  55  81  50 /  20  40  10  10
RUSSELL         75  50  74  45 /  60  60  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  51  75  46 /  60  40  10  10
SALINA          74  52  74  44 /  50  70  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  53  75  45 /  40  50  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     75  59  81  51 /  20  40  10  10
CHANUTE         74  59  78  49 /  40  50  10  10
IOLA            73  59  76  48 /  40  50  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    75  58  80  50 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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